{"id":45790,"date":"2026-04-28T22:23:43","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T22:23:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%af%81%e5%88%b8%e7%a7%b0%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e4%bb%8d%e4%bb%a5%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e4%b8%ba%e5%af%bc%e5%90%91%e8%bf%88%e5%90%91%e4%b8%ad%e6%80%a7\/"},"modified":"2026-04-28T22:23:43","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T22:23:43","slug":"%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%af%81%e5%88%b8%e7%a7%b0%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e4%bb%8d%e4%bb%a5%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e4%b8%ba%e5%af%bc%e5%90%91%e8%bf%88%e5%90%91%e4%b8%ad%e6%80%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%af%81%e5%88%b8%e7%a7%b0%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e4%bb%8d%e4%bb%a5%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e4%b8%ba%e5%af%bc%e5%90%91%e8%bf%88%e5%90%91%e4%b8%ad%e6%80%a7\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9053\u660e\u8bc1\u5238\u79f0\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u653f\u7b56\u4ecd\u4ee5\u6570\u636e\u4e3a\u5bfc\u5411\u8fc8\u5411\u4e2d\u6027\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u5de5\u5177\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u524d\u666f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>TD Securities\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5373\u5c06\u4e0a\u4efb\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2dKevin Warsh\u652f\u6301\u5f15\u5165\u65b0\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u201c\u4fee\u526a\u5747\u503c\u201d\uff08trimmed mean\uff0c\u6307\u628a\u6da8\u5e45\u6216\u8dcc\u5e45\u6700\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4ef7\u683c\u5254\u9664\u540e\uff0c\u518d\u8ba1\u7b97\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u51cf\u5c11\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e72\u6270\uff09\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u51fa\u201c\u5927\u6570\u636e\u4ef7\u683c\u9879\u76ee\u201d\uff08big-data price project\uff0c\u6307\u7528\u5927\u91cf\u7ebf\u4e0a\u4e0e\u7ebf\u4e0b\u4ef7\u683c\u6570\u636e\u6765\u66f4\u5feb\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7269\u4ef7\u53d8\u5316\uff09\u3002\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u589e\u5de5\u5177\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u7ebf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u672c\u6765\u5c31\u4f1a\u8ddf\u8e2a\u591a\u79cd\u901a\u80c0\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5b83\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u8981\u964d\u606f\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u660e\u786e\u8bc1\u636e\u8bc1\u660e\u201c\u57fa\u7840\u901a\u80c0\u201d\uff08underlying inflation\uff0c\u6307\u5254\u9664\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u540e\u3001\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u6b63\u56de\u5230\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Policy Easing Bar Remains High<\/h3>\n<p>TD Securities\u79f0\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u653e\u677e\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff08policy easing\uff0c\u6307\u964d\u606f\u6216\u51cf\u5c11\u7d27\u7f29\uff09\u95e8\u69db\u4ecd\u7136\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u77ed\u6682\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u5b83\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u52309\u6708\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08FOMC\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5236\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\uff09\u53ec\u5f00\u65f6\uff0c\u4f1a\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u8bc1\u636e\u8ba9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5f00\u59cb\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u9010\u6b65\u8d70\u5411\u201c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u201d\uff08neutral setting\uff0c\u6307\u65e2\u4e0d\u523a\u6fc0\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6291\u5236\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u672a\u6765\u5c06\u5f15\u5165\u65b0\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u8def\u7ebf\u4ecd\u662f\u7ee7\u7eed\u89c2\u671b\u3002\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u5c31\u964d\u606f\u98ce\u9669\u8f83\u9ad8\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f1a\u7ef4\u6301\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u51fa\u73b0\u65e0\u6cd5\u5426\u8ba4\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u663e\u793a\u901a\u80c0\u6b63\u5728\u56de\u843d\u5e76\u8d8b\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u8c28\u614e\u6001\u5ea6\u4e5f\u5f97\u5230\u8fd1\u671f\u6570\u636e\u652f\u6301\uff1a2026\u5e743\u6708\u6700\u65b0\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\uff08CPI\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u7bee\u5b50\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff09\u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u603b\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\uff08headline inflation\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u6240\u6709\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e3.1%\u7684\u504f\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u670d\u52a1\u4e0e\u4f4f\u623f\u76f8\u5173\u6210\u672c\u6301\u7eed\u504f\u9ad8\u63a8\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u96be\u4ee5\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5408\u7406\u5316\u653e\u677e\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u76ee\u524d\u5b9a\u4ef7\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u57289\u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u964d\u606f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e0d\u8db320%\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Market Implications For Traders<\/h3>\n<p>\u56de\u987e2025\u5e74\u672b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u539f\u672c\u9884\u671f2026\u5e74\u590f\u5b63\u524d\u540e\u5f00\u59cb\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u65f6\u95f4\u8868\u5df2\u7ecf\u63a8\u8fdf\u30022026\u5e743\u6708\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u65b0\u589e24\u4e07\u4e2a\u5c97\u4f4d\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5f3a\u5316\u4e86\u201c\u8010\u5fc3\u7b49\u5f85\u201d\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u4ecd\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u9884\u671f\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u504f\u4f4e\uff0cVIX\u6307\u6570\uff08\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u80a1\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u7684\u201c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6570\u201d\uff09\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u572814\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u73af\u5883\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u201c\u5356\u51fa\u77ed\u671f\u671f\u6743\u6536\u53d6\u6743\u5229\u91d1\u201d\uff08selling short-dated options to collect premium\uff0c\u6307\u5356\u51fa\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u5f88\u8fd1\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u8d5a\u53d6\u671f\u6743\u8d39\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u590f\u672b\u524d\u51fa\u73b0\u7a81\u7136\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u610f\u5916\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6216\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc5\u901f\u6253\u7834\u5e73\u9759\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5229\u7387\u884d\u751f\u54c1\uff08interest rate derivatives\uff0c\u6307\u4e0e\u5229\u7387\u6302\u94a9\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u5982\u671f\u8d27\u3001\u671f\u6743\u3001\u4e92\u6362\uff09\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7b56\u7565\u662f\u628a\u89c2\u5bdf\u91cd\u70b9\u653e\u5230\u66f4\u8fdc\u7684\u671f\u9650\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u53cd\u6620\u201c9\u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u9644\u8fd1\u964d\u606f\u201d\u7684\u4ed3\u4f4d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u62bc\u6ce86\u6708\u62167\u6708\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5305\u62ec\u4f7f\u7528SOFR\u671f\u8d27\u671f\u6743\uff08SOFR futures options\uff0cSOFR\u4e3a\u62c5\u4fdd\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8d44\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u51c6\uff1b\u7528\u5176\u671f\u8d27\u4e0e\u671f\u6743\u6765\u4ea4\u6613\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\uff09\uff0c\u628a\u6f5c\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411\u62bc\u5728\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u201c\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\u3001\u7ef4\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\u201d\uff08higher for longer\uff0c\u6307\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u66f4\u957f\uff09\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u4f1a\u538b\u5236\u6210\u957f\u80a1\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u66f4\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u7528\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u505a\u9632\u5b88\u578b\u914d\u7f6e\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e70\u5165\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e02\u573a\u6307\u6570\u7684\u4fdd\u62a4\u6027\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff08protective puts\uff0c\u6307\u4e70\u5165\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\u4e3a\u6301\u4ed3\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4fdd\u62a4\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u5bf9\u51b2\u5e02\u573a\u56e0\u4e0d\u6ee1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5ef6\u540e\u964d\u606f\u800c\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u65b0\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u638c\u95e8Warsh\u62df\u5f15\u5165\u4fee\u526a\u5747\u503c\u4e0e\u5927\u6570\u636e\u7269\u4ef7\u8ffd\u8e2a\uff0c\u4f46TD\u79f0\u77ed\u671f\u4e0d\u6539\u653f\u7b56\uff1a\u964d\u606f\u95e8\u69db\u4ecd\u9ad8\uff0c9\u6708\u524d\u6982\u7387\u4e0d\u8db320%\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5b9c\u62bc\u540e\u7aef\u5e76\u505a\u597d\u5bf9\u51b2\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45790","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45790"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45790\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}