{"id":45858,"date":"2026-04-29T11:27:17","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T11:27:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e5%be%b7%e5%9b%bd%e5%95%86%e4%b8%9a%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%ef%bc%88commerzbank%ef%bc%89%e6%b2%83%e5%b0%94%e5%85%8b%e9%a9%ac%c2%b7%e9%b2%8d%e5%b0%94%e7%a7%b0%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80\/"},"modified":"2026-04-29T11:27:17","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T11:27:17","slug":"%e5%be%b7%e5%9b%bd%e5%95%86%e4%b8%9a%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%ef%bc%88commerzbank%ef%bc%89%e6%b2%83%e5%b0%94%e5%85%8b%e9%a9%ac%c2%b7%e9%b2%8d%e5%b0%94%e7%a7%b0%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e5%be%b7%e5%9b%bd%e5%95%86%e4%b8%9a%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%ef%bc%88commerzbank%ef%bc%89%e6%b2%83%e5%b0%94%e5%85%8b%e9%a9%ac%c2%b7%e9%b2%8d%e5%b0%94%e7%a7%b0%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5fb7\u56fd\u5546\u4e1a\u94f6\u884c\uff08Commerzbank\uff09\u6c83\u5c14\u514b\u9a6c\u00b7\u9c8d\u5c14\u79f0\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32\u901a\u80c0\u56de\u843d\u964d\u4f4e\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u6fb3\u6d32\u8054\u50a8\u4e0b\u5468\u518d\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6fb3\u6d32\u6700\u65b0\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u51fa\u7089\u540e\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u6fb3\u6d32\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\uff08RBA\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff09\u5728\u4e0b\u5468\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u964d\u3002RBA\u5df2\u57282\u6708\u548c3\u6708\u52a0\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u901a\u80c0\u516c\u5e03\u524d\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4f30\u8ba1\u518d\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7ea680%\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u4eca\u4fe1\u5fc3\u8f6c\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n

\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u6539\u53d8\u52a0\u606f\u6982\u7387<\/h3>\n

\u6708\u5ea6\u7269\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da81.1%\uff0c\u5e26\u52a8\u5e74\u5ea6\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u7387\uff08headline inflation\uff0c\u6307CPI\u603b\u6307\u6570\/\u603b\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u5347\u81f34.6%\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8eRBA\u76842\u20133%\u76ee\u6807\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ea4\u901a\u76f8\u5173\u901a\u80c0\u6309\u5e74\u4e0a\u6da88.9%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u4e0e\u6c7d\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u7ea6\u4e0a\u6da825%\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u4ed6\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u5e26\u52a8\u6548\u5e94\uff08spillover\uff0c\u6307\u67d0\u4e00\u9879\u6da8\u4ef7\u6269\u6563\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7269\u4ef7\uff09\u6709\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n

\u622a\u5c3e\u5747\u503c\uff08trimmed mean\uff0cRBA\u504f\u597d\u7684\u201c\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u201d\u6307\u6807\uff1b\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u628a\u6da8\u5e45\u6700\u9ad8\u4e0e\u6700\u4f4e\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u5254\u9664\u540e\u518d\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u8f83\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u901a\u80c0\u957f\u671f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff09\u6309\u5e74\u4ece3.4%\u5c0f\u5347\u81f33.5%\uff0c\u800c\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u901a\u80c0\u7565\u6709\u56de\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u6548\u679c\u901a\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u7ea66\u4e2a\u6708\u624d\u4f1a\u660e\u663e\u4f53\u73b0\uff0cRBA\u4e0b\u5468\u4e5f\u53ef\u9009\u62e9\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\uff08leave rates unchanged\uff0c\u6307\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

AUD\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u8bb0\u5f97\u53bb\u5e74\u540c\u671f\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u60c5\u51b5\u30022025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u518d\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u7a81\u7136\u8f6c\u5f31\u3002\u8f83\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u8ba9RBA\u5728\u4e24\u6b21\u5feb\u901f\u52a0\u606f\u540e\u6709\u7a7a\u95f4\u6682\u505c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\u5bf9\u6fb3\u5143\uff08AUD\uff09\u5f71\u54cd\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u6c47\u4ef7\u6ce2\u52a8\u660e\u663e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u4eca\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u7ec6\u8282\u5df2\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u5b63\u5ea6CPI\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u5df2\u4ece\u4e00\u5e74\u524d\u76844.6%\u964d\u81f33.8%\uff0c\u4f46RBA\u504f\u597d\u7684\u622a\u5c3e\u5747\u503c\u4ecd\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u7ef4\u6301\u57283.6%\u3002\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u9ecf\u6027\uff08sticky\uff0c\u6307\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u56de\u843d\u7f13\u6162\uff09\u4ee4\u592e\u884c\u4ecd\u6709\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u5f00\u59cb\u51fa\u73b0\u8f6c\u5f31\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5347\u81f34.1%\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6700\u65b0\u96f6\u552e\u9500\u552e\u4e0b\u6ed10.2%\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u8fc7\u53bb\u52a0\u606f\uff08rate hikes\uff0c\u6307\u4e0a\u8c03\u5229\u7387\uff09\u6b63\u9010\u6b65\u538b\u5236\u6d88\u8d39\u3002\u6570\u636e\u4e00\u51b7\u4e00\u70ed\uff0c\u8ba9RBA\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u66f4\u96be\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97RBA\u5373\u5c06\u53ec\u5f00\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u518d\u6b21\u6210\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6216\u9884\u671f\u6fb3\u5143\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u6307\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u5b9e\u9645\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u901a\u8fc7\u4e70\u5165\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08buying volatility\uff0c\u6307\u7528\u671f\u6743\u7b56\u7565\u62bc\u6ce8\u201c\u4f1a\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u201d\uff0c\u4e0d\u62bc\u6ce8\u65b9\u5411\uff09\u5e03\u5c40\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u6fb3\u5143\/\u7f8e\u5143\uff08AUD\/USD\uff09\u592e\u884c\u516c\u5e03\u540e\u5230\u671f\u7684\u671f\u6743\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08straddle\uff1a\u540c\u4e00\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff09\u6216\u5bbd\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08strangle\uff1a\u4e70\u5165\u4e0d\u540c\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u6210\u672c\u8f83\u4f4e\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u505a\u6cd5\u5728\u6c47\u4ef7\u671d\u4efb\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u65f6\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u5229\uff0c\u65e0\u9700\u4e8b\u5148\u62bc\u4e2d\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82e5\u66f4\u503e\u5411RBA\u504f\u201c\u9e3d\u6d3e\u201d\uff08dovish\uff0c\u6307\u7acb\u573a\u504f\u5411\u4e0d\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u66f4\u65e9\u964d\u606f\u3001\u5f3a\u8c03\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e0e\u5c31\u4e1a\uff09\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u75b2\u5f31\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u4ecd\u9ad8\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u5e94\u66f4\u5f31\u7684\u6fb3\u5143\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e70\u5165\u6fb3\u5143\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff08put options\uff0c\u6307\u6c47\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc\u65f6\u83b7\u5229\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff09\u6216\u5efa\u7acb\u770b\u8dcc\u4ef7\u5dee\uff08bearish put spreads\uff1a\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u8f83\u9ad8\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u5e76\u5356\u51fa\u8f83\u4f4e\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u4f46\u9650\u5236\u6700\u5927\u83b7\u5229\uff09\u53ef\u5728\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u63a7\uff08defined-risk\uff0c\u6307\u6700\u5927\u4e8f\u635f\u53ef\u9884\u5148\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4e3a\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u6743\u5229\u91d1\/\u51c0\u6210\u672c\uff09\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e03\u5c40\u6f5c\u5728\u4e0b\u884c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u592e\u884c\u91ca\u653e\u7d27\u7f29\u5468\u671f\uff08tightening cycle\uff0c\u6307\u6301\u7eed\u52a0\u606f\u4e0e\u6536\u7d27\u91d1\u878d\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\uff09\u7ed3\u675f\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ed3\u4f4d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u6fb3\u6d32\u901a\u80c0\u516c\u5e03\u540e\uff0cRBA\u4e0b\u5468\u4e09\u8fde\u5347\u606f\u62bc\u6ce8\u964d\u6e29\uff1a\u6cb9\u4ef7\u63a8\u9ad8\u5934\u6761\u4f46\u6838\u5fc3\u9ecf\u6027\uff0c\u5c31\u4e1a\u96f6\u552e\u8f6c\u5f31\u3002\u6fb3\u5143\u6216\u8fce\u6ce2\u52a8\u653e\u5927\uff0c\u8de8\u5f0f\/\u5bbd\u8de8\u5f0f\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u5e03\u5c40\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45858","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45858"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45858\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45858"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45858"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45858"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}