\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u628a\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u57282.25%\u3002\u592e\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u66f4\u5f3a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u77ed\u671f\u589e\u957f\u52a8\u80fd\u504f\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n
\u592e\u884c\u4e0a\u8c03\u4e862026\u5e74\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u4ecd\u57283%\u81f33.5%\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5728\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u5e26\u6765\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u884c\u538b\u529b\uff08\u5373\u7269\u4ef7\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u7ee7\u7eed\u6da8\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u8482\u592b\u00b7\u9ea6\u514b\u52d2\u59c6\uff08Tiff Macklem\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u8bbe\u8def\u7ebf\uff08\u5373\u4e0d\u4e8b\u5148\u627f\u8bfa\u4f55\u65f6\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u964d\u606f\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u8bf4\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u201c\u96f6\u98ce\u9669\u201d\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9009\u62e9\uff08\u5373\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u4e0d\u52a0\u606f\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u4ee3\u4ef7\uff09\uff0c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5c06\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u540e\u7eed\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff08\u5982\u901a\u80c0\u3001\u5c31\u4e1a\u7b49\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u8f83\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u518d\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u201c\u95f2\u7f6e\u4ea7\u80fd\/\u9700\u6c42\u4e0d\u8db3\u201d\uff08slack\uff1a\u6307\u9700\u6c42\u4e0d\u5f3a\u3001\u4ea7\u80fd\u6216\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u672a\u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\uff09\u5e94\u4f1a\u9650\u5236\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u6da8\u5411\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7269\u4ef7\u7684\u4f20\u5bfc\u5e45\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9ea6\u514b\u52d2\u59c6\u8bf4\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\uff08inflation expectations\uff1a\u6c11\u4f17\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e0e\u52a0\u85aa\u884c\u4e3a\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5982\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u90a3\u6837\u7a33\u5b9a\uff08anchored\uff1a\u6307\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e26\u504f\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u79f0\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e0e\u516c\u4f17\u5bf9\u592e\u884c\u4fe1\u8a89\uff08credibility\uff1a\u80fd\u5426\u6709\u6548\u63a7\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\uff09\u4ecd\u4fdd\u6301\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n
\u526f\u884c\u957f\u5361\u7f57\u7433\u00b7\u7f57\u6770\u65af\uff08Carolyn Rogers\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u6cb9\u4ef7\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u5bf9\u957f\u671f\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u66f4\u6301\u4e45\u3002\u5979\u4e5f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u4ecd\u975e\u5e38\u654f\u611f\uff08\u5373\u751f\u6d3b\u6210\u672c\u53d8\u5316\u4f1a\u66f4\u5feb\u5f71\u54cd\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u592e\u884c\u7ef4\u6301\u201c\u5148\u89c2\u5bdf\u201d\u7684\u7acb\u573a\uff08wait-and-see\uff1a\u5148\u4e0d\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u7b49\u66f4\u591a\u6570\u636e\u786e\u8ba4\uff09\u3002\u82e5\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u5347\u6e29\uff0c\u4ecd\u4fdd\u7559\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6536\u7d27\u7684\u9009\u9879\uff08tightening\uff1a\u901a\u8fc7\u66f4\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u538b\u5236\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u57282.25%\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u5e94\u62bc\u6ce8\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5c31\u4f1a\u964d\u606f\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u6b21\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u5728\u9884\u671f\u4e4b\u5185\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0a\u8c032026\u5e74\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u201c\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u8f83\u9ad8\u66f4\u4e45\u201d\uff08higher for longer\uff1a\u964d\u606f\u4f1a\u66f4\u665a\u3001\u5e45\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5c0f\uff09\u5982\u4eca\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u4e3b\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0e2025\u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u5f62\u6210\u53cd\u5dee\u2014\u2014\u5f53\u65f6\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u9884\u671f\u52302026\u5e74\u4e2d\u81f3\u5c11\u4f1a\u964d\u606f\u4e24\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n
\u592e\u884c\u7684\u8c28\u614e\u4e0e\u8fd1\u671f\u6570\u636e\u4e00\u81f4\uff1a\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u6700\u65b0\u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\uff0c2026\u5e743\u6708CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff1a\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u7bee\u5b50\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff09\u5347\u81f32.9%\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5e76\u626d\u8f6c\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u964d\u6e29\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u9ecf\u6027\u901a\u80c0\u201d\uff08sticky inflation\uff1a\u901a\u80c0\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u964d\u4e0b\u6765\uff09\u90e8\u5206\u6765\u81ea\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u4ecd\u57283.4%\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u4ee4\u51b3\u7b56\u5c42\u62c5\u5fc3\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u901a\u80c0\uff08\u670d\u52a1\u4ef7\u683c\u53d7\u4eba\u5de5\u6210\u672c\u5f71\u54cd\u66f4\u5927\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5728BAX\u671f\u8d27\uff08BAX futures\uff1a\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u671f\u8d27\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u53d8\u5316\uff09\u4e0a\u5356\u51fa\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08call options\uff1a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u65f6\u83b7\u5229\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff1b\u5356\u51fa\u5219\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0d\u5927\u6da8\uff0c\u5e76\u6536\u53d6\u6743\u5229\u91d1\uff09\u6765\u964d\u4f4e\u5bf9\u964d\u606f\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u66f4\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u5316\uff08policy divergence\uff1a\u4e24\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u65b9\u5411\u4e0d\u540c\uff09\u3002\u82e5\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u6682\u505c\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u504f\u9e3d\uff0c\u800c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u7ef4\u6301\u504f\u7d27\uff0c\u5219\u52a0\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\u7684\u7406\u7531\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u5e03\u5c40USD\/CAD\uff08\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u52a0\u5143\uff09\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u884c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e70\u5165\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff08put options\uff1a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u65f6\u83b7\u5229\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff1b\u7528\u4e8e\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u98ce\u9669\u4e0b\u6355\u6349\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6536\u76ca\uff09\u3002\u526f\u884c\u957f\u5f3a\u8c03\u8d38\u6613\u7d27\u5f20\u662f\u66f4\u6301\u4e45\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4e5f\u63d0\u793a\u8981\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u589e\u957f\u4fdd\u6301\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u95f4\u63a5\u652f\u6491\u52a0\u5143\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u8d27\u5e01\u9762\u524d\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9274\u4e8e\u884c\u957f\u5e76\u672a\u6392\u9664\u518d\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u4e0e\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u516c\u5e03\u524d\u540e\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u5927\u30022026\u5e744\u6708WTI\u539f\u6cb9\uff08\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8d28\u539f\u6cb9\uff1a\u56fd\u9645\u57fa\u51c6\u6cb9\u4ef7\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u5728\u6bcf\u687695\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u8868\u73b0\u575a\u633a\uff0c\u4f7f\u201c\u5982\u6cb9\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4f01\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u6536\u7d27\u201d\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u52a0\u606f\u5a01\u80c1\u66f4\u5177\u73b0\u5b9e\u6027\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u5728\u503a\u5238\u671f\u8d27\u4e0a\u4e70\u5165\u8de8\u5f0f\u6216\u5bbd\u8de8\u5f0f\u7b56\u7565\uff08straddle\/strangle\uff1a\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u4ef7\u683c\u5c06\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u65b9\u5411\uff09\u6765\u5229\u7528\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u592e\u884c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u5b88\u4f4f2.25%\uff0c\u5374\u4e0a\u8c032026\u901a\u80c0\u5c55\u671b\uff1a\u964d\u606f\u522b\u592a\u65e9\u3002\u9ea6\u514b\u52d2\u59c6\u79f0\u5229\u7387\u65e0\u9884\u8bbe\u8def\u7ebf\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\u82e5\u9ad8\u4f01\u6216\u518d\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e0e\u52a0\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\u673a\u4f1a\u6d6e\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45902","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45902"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45902\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}