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\u94f6\uff08XAG\/USD\uff09\u5468\u4e94\u572876.00\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u5f53\u5929\u4e0a\u6da83.05%\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u4ece\u672c\u5468\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u7684\u76d8\u6574\uff08\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u8f83\u5c0f\u533a\u95f4\u5185\u6765\u56de\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u56de\u5347\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5728\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u538b\u5236\u201c\u65e0\u5229\u606f\u8d44\u4ea7\u201d\uff08\u4e0d\u4ed8\u5229\u606f\u3001\u6ca1\u6709\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\uff09\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u9700\u6c42\u4ecd\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff0cFederal Reserve\uff09\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u57283.5%\u20133.75%\u533a\u95f4\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5185\u90e8\u51fa\u73b0\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u6210\u5458\u53cd\u5bf9\u201c\u504f\u5411\u964d\u606f\u201d\uff08easing bias\uff0c\u503e\u5411\u653e\u677e\u653f\u7b56\uff09\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u504f\u7d27\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\u4e0e\u767d\u94f6<\/h3>\n

CME FedWatch\uff08\u829d\u5546\u6240\u57fa\u4e8e\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\u63a8\u7b97\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6536\u7d27\uff08\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u4e45\uff09\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u5229\u7387\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u767d\u94f6\u4e0a\u884c\u7a7a\u95f4\u8d8a\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u9650\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6301\u6709\u767d\u94f6\u7684\u201c\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u201d\uff08\u628a\u8d44\u91d1\u653e\u5728\u80fd\u8d5a\u5229\u606f\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e0a\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5212\u7b97\uff09\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u901a\u80c0\uff08\u7269\u4ef7\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff09\u4ecd\u662f\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u53d7\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u63a8\u5347\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u201c\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u201d\uff08\u5927\u5bb6\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7269\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff09\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u3001\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff09\u4e0e\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u94f6\u884c\uff08BOE\uff09\u90fd\u7ef4\u6301\u8c28\u614e\u3001\u4ee5\u6570\u636e\u4e3a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u5e76\u5e26\u6709\u201c\u504f\u9e70\u201d\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u503e\u5411\u66f4\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u4f18\u5148\u538b\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u7684\u610f\u5473\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\uff08\u5305\u62ecLorie Logan\u4e0eNeel Kashkari\uff09\u8868\u793a\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u80fd\u5411\u4efb\u4f55\u65b9\u5411\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5e76\u8b66\u544a\u82e5\u51fa\u73b0\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u201c\u4ef7\u683c\u51b2\u51fb\u201d\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u80fd\u6e90\u7a81\u7136\u5927\u6da8\uff09\uff0c\u4e3a\u5b88\u4f4f\u901a\u80c0\u76ee\u6807\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u767d\u94f6\u5728\u4e24\u80a1\u529b\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u62c9\u626f\uff1a\u8f83\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u201c\u907f\u9669\u201d\uff08\u8d44\u91d1\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u65f6\u671f\u8f6c\u5411\u66f4\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\uff09\u4e0e\u6297\u901a\u80c0\u9700\u6c42\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u652f\u6491\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ea4\u6613\u542b\u4e49\u4e0e\u6ce2\u52a8<\/h3>\n

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\u5bf9\u201c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u201d\uff08\u4f7f\u7528\u671f\u6743\u3001\u671f\u8d27\u7b49\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff09\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u77ed\u671f\u4e0a\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u9650\u3002\u4e70\u5165\u4ef7\u683c\u6602\u8d35\u3001\u4e14\u201c\u6df1\u5ea6\u865a\u503c\u201d\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08far-out-of-the-money call\uff0c\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u73b0\u4ef7\u3001\u9700\u8981\u5927\u6da8\u624d\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u5229\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u662f\u597d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u65e6\u5e02\u573a\u91cd\u65b0\u62c5\u5fc3\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u9ad8\u4ef7\u671f\u6743\u5bb9\u6613\u5feb\u901f\u8d2c\u503c\u3002\u76f8\u5bf9\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u91c7\u7528\u4ece\u201c\u6a2a\u76d8\u201d\uff08\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0d\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u6216\u201c\u7f13\u6162\u4e0a\u884c\u201d\u4e2d\u83b7\u76ca\u7684\u671f\u6743\u7ec4\u5408\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u5356\u51fa\u6743\u5229\u91d1\u3001\u6216\u4ee5\u8f83\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u6784\u5efa\u4ef7\u5dee\u7ed3\u6784\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5ffd\u89c6\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u907f\u9669\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u81ea\u53bb\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u6e29\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ef7\u683c\u63d0\u4f9b\u201c\u5e95\u90e8\u652f\u6491\u201d\uff08\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u65f6\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u51fa\u73b0\u4e70\u76d8\uff09\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u660e\u663e\u629b\u552e\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u767d\u94f6\u5728\u5229\u7387\u73af\u5883\u4e0d\u5229\u4e0b\u4ecd\u8868\u73b0\u826f\u597d\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u62c9\u952f\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u63a8\u9ad8\u201c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u201d\uff08\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u62bc\u6ce8\u5355\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u201c\u505a\u591a\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u201d\uff08long volatility\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u53d8\u5927\u3001\u901a\u5e38\u7528\u671f\u6743\u7ec4\u5408\u5b9e\u73b0\uff09\u7684\u671f\u6743\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u6216\u66f4\u5360\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n

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