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TD Securities \u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6 Oscar Munoz \u548c Eli Nir \u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u5c40\uff08\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff0cFederal Reserve\uff09\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u4f0a\u6717\u51b2\u7a81\u5f71\u54cd\u5e76\u8ffd\u8e2a\u901a\u80c0\uff08\u7269\u4ef7\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff09\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5c06\u628a\u653f\u7b56\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u76f4\u52309\u6708\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7531\u80fd\u6e90\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6301\u7eed\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08FOMC\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u7b56\u673a\u6784\uff09\u5185\u90e8\u610f\u89c1\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u63a8\u8fdf\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba9\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u9694\u591c\u501f\u8d37\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff09\u5728\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f62\u5bb9\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6770\u7f57\u59c6\u00b7\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\uff08Jerome Powell\uff09\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u5f84\u4e0d\u7f6e\u53ef\u5426\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u63d0\u5230\u6709\u5173\u628a\u201c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u201d\uff08forward guidance\uff1a\u592e\u884c\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u8868\u6001\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u5f71\u54cd\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\uff09\u8c03\u6574\u4e3a\u66f4\u201c\u53cc\u5411\u201d\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5373\u4e0d\u518d\u53ea\u6697\u793a\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u4f1a\u600e\u6837\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u540c\u65f6\u5f3a\u8c03\u53ef\u80fd\u5347\u606f\u6216\u964d\u606f\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u79f0\uff0c4\u6708\u6709\u4e09\u4f4d\u5730\u533a\u8054\u50a8\u603b\u88c1\u6295\u4e0b\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u5e76\u652f\u6301\u8fd9\u9879\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u8c03\u6574\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5148\u4ece\u4fee\u6539\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e\uff08policy statement\uff1a\u8bae\u606f\u4f1a\u540e\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u6587\u5b57\u8bf4\u660e\uff09\u7684\u63aa\u8f9e\u5f00\u59cb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5229\u7387\u5c55\u671b\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u5e03\u5c40<\/h3>\n

\u4ed6\u4eec\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c2026\u5e74\u5c06\u964d\u606f50\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff08basis points\uff1a\u5229\u7387\u53d8\u52a8\u5355\u4f4d\uff0c1\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9=0.01%\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u57282027\u5e743\u6708\u518d\u964d25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u63d0\u51fa\u53e6\u4e00\u6761\u8def\u7ebf\uff1a9\u6708\u4e0e12\u6708\u5404\u964d\u606f50\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u57282027\u5e743\u6708\u989d\u5916\u964d25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u4f7f\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f33.00%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u4eec\u8868\u793a\uff0c9\u6708\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u91cd\u65b0\u8f6c\u5411\u5bbd\u677e\uff08easing\uff1a\u964d\u606f\u6216\u51cf\u5c11\u7d27\u7f29\u529b\u5ea6\uff09\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u901a\u80c0\u662f\u5426\u56de\u5230\u66f4\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f0a\u6717\u5c40\u52bf\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u662f\u5426\u6709\u9650\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8865\u5145\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u5173\u6ce8\u7ebd\u7ea6\u8054\u50a8\u603b\u88c1\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u65af\uff08John Williams\uff09\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u8c08\u8bdd\uff0c\u7559\u610f\u4ed6\u662f\u5426\u63d0\u5230\u53ef\u80fd\u4fee\u6539\u58f0\u660e\u63aa\u8f9e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u81f3\u5c11\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u52309\u6708\uff0c\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e0e\u4f0a\u6717\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u8fd9\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u6d88\u5316\u6700\u65b04\u6708CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff1a\u8861\u91cf\u5c45\u6c11\u6d88\u8d39\u54c1\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff09\u6570\u636e\u4e4b\u9645\uff1b\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u4ecd\u987d\u56fa\u7ef4\u6301\u57283.8%\uff0c\u4e0e\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u58eb\u9884\u671f\u4f1a\u66f4\u5feb\u56de\u843d\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u5e94\u91cd\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u90a3\u4e9b\u62bc\u6ce8\u4eca\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u5c31\u4f1a\u964d\u606f\u7684\u4ed3\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8c28\u614e\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u573a\u538b\u529b\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u539f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u81ea2026\u5e743\u6708\u521d\u6b21\u51b2\u51fb\u4ee5\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u6bcf\u6876105\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u8fd9\u4f1a\u76f4\u63a5\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u66f4\u96be\u8f6c\u5411\u964d\u606f\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u60c5\u51b5\u57282022\u5e74\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\uff1a\u5730\u7f18\u4e8b\u4ef6\u63a8\u5347\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u5404\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u5f3a\u786c\uff08\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u5347\u606f\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u4e0e\u66f2\u7ebf\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/h3>\n

\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u590f\u5b63SOFR\uff08Secured Overnight Financing Rate\uff1a\u6709\u62c5\u4fdd\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8d44\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u91cd\u8981\u77ed\u7aef\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\uff09\u671f\u8d27\u671f\u6743\uff08options\uff1a\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5356\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff09\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc7\u5ea6\u504f\u5411\u201c\u9e3d\u6d3e\u201d\uff08dovish\uff1a\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u8f83\u5bbd\u677e\uff09\u3002\u5e03\u5c40\u201c\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\u201d\uff08higher for longer\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u662f\u5356\u51fa2026\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u671f\u8d27\u5408\u7ea6\uff08futures contracts\uff1a\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4ee5\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4ea4\u5272\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u3002\u8be5\u7b56\u7565\u62bc\u6ce8\u5e02\u573a\u6700\u7ec8\u5fc5\u987b\u4fee\u6b63\u8fc7\u65e9\u7684\u964d\u606f\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n

FOMC \u5185\u90e8\u7684\u660e\u663e\u5206\u6b67\u2014\u2014\u57282026\u5e744\u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u51fa\u73b0\u4e09\u5f20\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u2014\u2014\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u4ece\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff09\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u51e0\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u8de8\u5f0f\u201d\uff08straddle\uff1a\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u540c\u4e00\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u3001\u540c\u4e00\u6267\u884c\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8\u800c\u4e0d\u62bc\u65b9\u5411\uff09\u7b49\u5de5\u5177\u5728\u56fd\u503a\u671f\u8d27\u4e0a\u4e70\u5165\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u662f\u5e94\u5bf9\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e\u53ef\u80fd\u610f\u5916\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u8f83\u7a33\u5065\u505a\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u901a\u5e38\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u66f4\u6709\u8010\u5fc3\uff08\u6682\u4e0d\u884c\u52a8\uff09\u4f1a\u8ba9\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\uff08yield curve\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u671f\u9650\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff09\u66f4\u8d8b\u5e73\u5766\uff1a\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u88ab\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u201c\u9489\u4f4f\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u957f\u671f\u7aef\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u589e\u957f\u62c5\u5fe7\u800c\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u201c\u66f2\u7ebf\u53d8\u5e73\u201d\u4ea4\u6613\uff08yield curve flattening trades\uff1a\u62bc\u6ce8\u77ed\u957f\u7aef\u5229\u5dee\u6536\u7a84\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff09\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff1b\u82e52\u5e74\u671f\u4e0e10\u5e74\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5dee\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7f29\u5c0f\uff0c\u8be5\u7b56\u7565\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u5229\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u5e94\u7559\u610f\u672c\u5468\u4efb\u4f55\u504f\u201c\u9e70\u6d3e\u201d\uff08hawkish\uff1a\u503e\u5411\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u6216\u66f4\u7d27\u7f29\uff09\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u8bb2\u8bdd\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u65af\u7684\u8868\u6001\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u89e6\u53d1\u5e02\u573a\u518d\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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