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\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u652f\u6491\u907f\u9669\u9700\u6c42<\/h3>\n

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CME Group\u7684FedWatch\u5de5\u5177\uff08\u4f9d\u636e\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\u4ef7\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u653f\u7b56\u6982\u7387\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff09\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u52a0\u606f\uff08rate rise\uff1b\u63d0\u9ad8\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7ea635%\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u4e0d\u8db310%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u53d8\u5316\u652f\u6491DXY\u524d\u666f\u3002<\/p>\n

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2025\u5e74\u652f\u6491\u504f\u9e70\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff08hawkish Fed\uff1b\u503e\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u4ee5\u6297\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u53d9\u4e8b\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u88ab\u5168\u7403\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u8ff9\u8c61\u6240\u5e72\u6270\u3002CME FedWatch\u5de5\u5177\u76ee\u524d\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u964d\u606f\uff08rate cut\uff1b\u964d\u4f4e\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff09\u7684\u6982\u7387\u63a5\u8fd160%\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5c40\u52bf\u5347\u6e29\u65f6\u201c\u52a0\u606f\u6982\u738735%\u201d\u5f62\u6210\u660e\u663e\u53cd\u8f6c\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7531\u5229\u5dee\uff08interest rate differentials\uff1b\u4e0d\u540c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5229\u7387\u5dee\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u5411\u4f18\u52bf\uff09\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u884c\u52a8\u80fd\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u63a5\u8fd1\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u57fa\u4e8e\u8be5\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u673a\u4f1a\uff1a\u5728\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u5143\u591a\u5934\u4ed3\u4f4d\u4e0a\u5356\u51fa\u5907\u5151\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08covered calls\uff1b\u6301\u6709\u73b0\u8d27\/\u591a\u5934\u540c\u65f6\u5356\u51fa\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u4ee5\u6536\u53d6\u6743\u5229\u91d1\u3001\u4f46\u9650\u5236\u4e0a\u6da8\u7a7a\u95f4\uff09\u6765\u83b7\u53d6\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5c01\u9876\u4e0a\u884c\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u7528SOFR\u671f\u8d27\uff08Secured Overnight Financing Rate futures\uff1b\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u6709\u62c5\u4fdd\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8d44\u5229\u7387\u4e3a\u57fa\u51c6\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u4ea4\u6613\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\uff09\u7684\u671f\u6743\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u6765\u4ea4\u6613\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u8d27\u5e01\u5bbd\u677e\uff08monetary easing\uff1b\u964d\u606f\u6216\u589e\u52a0\u8d44\u91d1\u4f9b\u5e94\uff09\u7684\u5347\u6e29\u9884\u671f\u3002\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u628a\u4ea4\u6613\u903b\u8f91\u4ece\u201c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u5f3a\u52bf\u201d\u8f6c\u5411\u201c\u653f\u7b56\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\u5e03\u5c40\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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