{"id":46451,"date":"2026-05-06T17:58:29","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T17:58:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e6%88%90%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e4%b8%bb%e5%b8%ad%e7%83%ad%e9%97%a8%e4%ba%ba%e9%80%89%ef%bc%9a%e6%9a%97%e7%a4%ba%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e8%bd%ac%e5%90%91%e9%b8%bd%e6%b4%be%ef%bc%8c%e7%bc%a9\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T17:58:29","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T17:58:29","slug":"%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e6%88%90%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e4%b8%bb%e5%b8%ad%e7%83%ad%e9%97%a8%e4%ba%ba%e9%80%89%ef%bc%9a%e6%9a%97%e7%a4%ba%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e8%bd%ac%e5%90%91%e9%b8%bd%e6%b4%be%ef%bc%8c%e7%bc%a9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e6%88%90%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e4%b8%bb%e5%b8%ad%e7%83%ad%e9%97%a8%e4%ba%ba%e9%80%89%ef%bc%9a%e6%9a%97%e7%a4%ba%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e8%bd%ac%e5%90%91%e9%b8%bd%e6%b4%be%ef%bc%8c%e7%bc%a9\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6c83\u4ec0\u6210\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u70ed\u95e8\u4eba\u9009\uff1a\u6697\u793a\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411\u9e3d\u6d3e\uff0c\u7f29\u8868\u6301\u7eed\u63a8\u8fdb\uff0c\u5e76\u8b66\u793a\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0b\u884c\u98ce\u9669"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5fb7\u56fd\u5546\u4e1a\u94f6\u884c\uff08Commerzbank\uff09\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Bernd Weidensteiner\u4e0eChristoph Balz\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5019\u4efb\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\uff08Kevin Warsh\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5e76\u5f71\u54cd\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u6b64\u524d\u66fe\u6279\u8bc4\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u201c\u622a\u5c3e\u5747\u503c\u901a\u80c0\u201d\uff08trimmed-mean inflation\uff0c\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u628a\u7269\u4ef7\u6da8\u8dcc\u6700\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u5254\u9664\uff0c\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e72\u6270\uff0c\u8ba9\u901a\u80c0\u66f4\u8d34\u8fd1\u957f\u671f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff09\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3b\u5f20\u7f29\u5c0f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\uff08Fed balance sheet\uff0c\u5373\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6301\u6709\u7684\u56fd\u503a\u4e0e\u6309\u63ed\u8bc1\u5238\u7b49\u8d44\u4ea7\u89c4\u6a21\uff1b\u7f29\u5c0f\u901a\u5e38\u4ee3\u8868\u51cf\u5c11\u4e70\u503a\u3001\u8ba9\u5e02\u573a\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u5e02\u573a\u5316\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u51cf\u5c11\u201c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u201d\uff08forward guidance\uff0c\u5373\u592e\u884c\u63d0\u524d\u6697\u793a\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u5f15\u5bfc\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u4eec\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u6bd4\u4e0d\u5c11\u73b0\u4efb\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08FOMC\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u7b56\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff09\u6210\u5458\u66f4\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u4e0e\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u653e\u677e\u76d1\u7ba1\u4e0e\u7a0e\u5236\u53d8\u5316\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8865\u5145\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u66f4\u96be\u5728FOMC\u5185\u90e8\u5f62\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u653f\u6cbb\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u538b\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n

Warsh\u4efb\u5185\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56<\/h3>\n

\u4ed6\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u4eca\u5e74\u5e95\u5f00\u59cb\u5c06\u6709\u4e09\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7GDP\u7684100%\uff0c\u800c\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u5728\u8054\u90a6\u9884\u7b97\u4e2d\u7684\u5360\u6bd4\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u6b64\u4e0e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u9010\u6b65\u8d70\u5f31\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff08\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u6307\u4e0d\u53d7\u653f\u5e9c\u77ed\u671f\u653f\u6cbb\u9700\u6c42\u5f71\u54cd\u3001\u4ee5\u7a33\u5b9a\u7269\u4ef7\u4e0e\u5c31\u4e1a\u4e3a\u4e3b\u4f5c\u51b3\u7b56\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6587\u7ae0\u79f0\u5185\u5bb9\u7531\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5de5\u5177\u751f\u6210\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u7f16\u8f91\u5ba1\u9605\u3002<\/p>\n

\u968f\u7740\u5019\u4efb\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e0a\u4efb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u80fd\u660e\u663e\u8f6c\u5411\u3002\u4ed6\u5f3a\u8c03\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u201c\u6291\u5236\u901a\u80c0\u201d\uff08disinflationary\uff0c\u6307\u901a\u80c0\u4e0b\u964d\u6216\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u51cf\u8f7b\uff09\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5373\u4f7f\u901a\u80c0\u4ecd\u9ad8\u4e8e\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u613f\u610f\u964d\u606f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0e\u6700\u65b04\u6708CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d2d\u4e70\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\uff09\u62a5\u544a\u5f62\u6210\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff1a\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\uff08core inflation\uff0c\u5254\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u6ce2\u52a8\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u957f\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u8d8b\u52bf\uff09\u4ecd\u987d\u56fa\u57283.1%\uff0c\u540e\u7eed\u8def\u5f84\u4ecd\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6c83\u4ec0\u652f\u6301\u964d\u606f\u7684\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u6765\u81ea\u8fd1\u671f\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u6539\u5584\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u975e\u519c\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\uff08nonfarm productivity\uff0c\u975e\u519c\u4e1a\u90e8\u95e8\u6bcf\u5355\u4f4d\u52b3\u52a8\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u7387\uff09\u589e\u957f2.5%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08derivative traders\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u671f\u8d27\u3001\u671f\u6743\u7b49\u201c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u201d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff1b\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u6765\u81ea\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6c47\u7387\u7b49\u57fa\u7840\u8d44\u4ea7\uff09\u5e94\u9884\u671f\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\u66f4\u201c\u9e3d\u6d3e\u201d\uff08dovish\uff0c\u504f\u5411\u964d\u606f\u4e0e\u652f\u6301\u589e\u957f\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u8981\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u5728FOMC\u5185\u90e8\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\u5e76\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53ef\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u964d\u606f\u505a\u5e03\u5c40\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u7528\u5bf9\u51b2\u65b9\u5f0f\u9632\u8303\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5176\u4ed6\u59d4\u5458\u201c\u9e70\u6d3e\u201d\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u504f\u5411\u5347\u606f\u4e0e\u538b\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u53cd\u5bf9\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/h3>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u628a\u5e74\u5e95\u964d\u606f\u8ba1\u5165\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u4f46\u5177\u4f53\u65f6\u70b9\u4ecd\u672a\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u4f7f\u7528SOFR\u671f\u8d27\uff08\u4ee5SOFR\u62c5\u4fdd\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8d44\u5229\u7387\u4e3a\u57fa\u51c6\u7684\u671f\u8d27\uff1bSOFR\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u65e0\u98ce\u9669\u77ed\u7aef\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u51c6\uff09\u6765\u5e03\u5c402026\u5e74\u672b\u4e0e2027\u5e74\u521d\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u884c\u3002\u4e5f\u53ef\u7528\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503aETF\u671f\u6743\uff08\u671f\u6743\u662f\u4e70\u5356\u6743\u5229\u800c\u975e\u4e49\u52a1\uff1b\u7528ETF\u671f\u6743\u53ef\u8868\u8fbe\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0b\u8dcc\/\u503a\u5238\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u628a\u98ce\u9669\u9650\u5236\u5728\u671f\u6743\u6743\u5229\u91d1\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u76f4\u63a5\u6301\u6709\u503a\u5238\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5b8c\u5168\u65b9\u5411\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653f\u6cbb\u5c42\u9762\u5bf9\u964d\u606f\u7684\u538b\u529b\u4e0d\u53ef\u5ffd\u89c6\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7GDP\u7684102%\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u60c5\u51b5\u57281970\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u603b\u7edf\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u6548\u679c\u4e0d\u4f73\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5386\u53f2\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5f3a\u5316\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5224\u65ad\uff1a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u53ef\u80fd\u7ee7\u7eed\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u8f83\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e00\u653f\u7b56\u9884\u671f\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u66f4\u9e3d\u6d3e\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff08\u540c\u65f6\u53d7AI\u4e50\u89c2\u9884\u671f\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u538b\u529b\u63a8\u52a8\uff09\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u5e94\u201c\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u201d\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u901a\u8fc7\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u76f8\u5173\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u6216\u7528\u671f\u6743\/\u671f\u8d27\u5408\u7ea6\u5e03\u5c40\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u4e00\u7bee\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u8d27\u5e01\uff08basket of currencies\uff0c\u6307\u4ee5\u591a\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u8d27\u5e01\u52a0\u6743\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u6307\u6570\uff09\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e0a\u4efb\u6216\u4ee4\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u66f4\u9e3d\uff1a\u91cd\u89c6\u622a\u5c3e\u901a\u80c0\u3001\u7f29\u8868\u964d\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8AI\u964d\u901a\u80c0\u4e0e\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u3002\u5e74\u5e95\u6216\u4e09\u6b21\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u53d7\u503a\u52a1\u653f\u6cbb\u6324\u538b\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6050\u8d70\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46451"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46451\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}