{"id":46473,"date":"2026-05-06T23:56:39","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T23:56:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/bny-%e7%9a%84-yu-%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%ef%bc%9a%e6%8b%89%e7%be%8e%e6%80%bb%e5%9b%9e%e6%8a%a5%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e8%bf%87%e5%ba%a6%e6%8b%a5%e6%8c%a4%ef%bc%8c%e9%9a%8f%e7%9d%80%e5%a2%a8%e8%a5%bf%e5%93%a5\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T23:56:39","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T23:56:39","slug":"bny-%e7%9a%84-yu-%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%ef%bc%9a%e6%8b%89%e7%be%8e%e6%80%bb%e5%9b%9e%e6%8a%a5%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e8%bf%87%e5%ba%a6%e6%8b%a5%e6%8c%a4%ef%bc%8c%e9%9a%8f%e7%9d%80%e5%a2%a8%e8%a5%bf%e5%93%a5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/bny-%e7%9a%84-yu-%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%ef%bc%9a%e6%8b%89%e7%be%8e%e6%80%bb%e5%9b%9e%e6%8a%a5%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e8%bf%87%e5%ba%a6%e6%8b%a5%e6%8c%a4%ef%bc%8c%e9%9a%8f%e7%9d%80%e5%a2%a8%e8%a5%bf%e5%93%a5\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY \u7684 Yu \u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u62c9\u7f8e\u603b\u56de\u62a5\u4ea4\u6613\u8fc7\u5ea6\u62e5\u6324\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u6bd4\u7d22\u5bf9\u51b2\u5347\u6e29\u6216\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u5e73\u4ed3\u6f6e"},"content":{"rendered":"

BNY \u7684 Geoff Yu \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u5916\u6c47\u4e0e\u80a1\u5e02\u5982\u4eca\u88ab\u5e02\u573a\u5f53\u4f5c\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u603b\u56de\u62a5\uff08total return\uff09\u201d\u4ed3\u4f4d\u6765\u4ea4\u6613\uff08\u5373\u628a\u6c47\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u6da8\u8dcc\u5408\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u770b\u6574\u4f53\u6536\u76ca\uff09\u3002iFlow \u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u62c9\u7f8e\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u8d27\u5e01\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e\u201c\u51c0\u8d85\u914d\/\u88ab\u6301\u6709\u8fc7\u591a\uff08net overheld\uff09\u201d\u72b6\u6001\uff08\u610f\u601d\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6301\u4ed3\u504f\u591a\uff0c\u62e5\u6324\u4ea4\u6613\u660e\u663e\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u62c9\u7f8e\u62e5\u6324\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u53d8\u5316<\/h3>\n

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\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u8ba4\u4e3a Banxico \u6b63\u8f6c\u5411\u66f4\u504f\u201c\u523a\u6fc0\u4e0e\u589e\u957f\u201d\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u201c\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u7f13\u51b2\uff08real rate buffer\uff0c\u540d\u4e49\u5229\u7387\u51cf\u901a\u80c0\u540e\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\uff09\u201d\u6b63\u5728\u7f29\u5c0f\uff0c\u5e76\u79f0\u9700\u8981\u7ea6 100 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u6765\u7ef4\u6301\u6b63\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\uff08\u5373\u6263\u9664\u901a\u80c0\u540e\u4ecd\u6709\u6536\u76ca\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

Yu \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c42\u9762\u98ce\u9669\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u9884\u671f\u53d8\u5316\u66f4\u5feb\u4f20\u5bfc\u6709\u5173\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u518d\u90a3\u4e48\u76f8\u4fe1\u4f1a\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5373\u201c\u6ca1\u90a3\u4e48\u9e3d\u6d3e\u201d\uff0cdovish \u6307\u504f\u5411\u964d\u606f\/\u5bbd\u677e\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\uff0c\u82e5\u5e02\u573a\u7ee7\u7eed\u628a\u7126\u70b9\u653e\u5728\u672a\u6765\u964d\u606f\u8def\u5f84\u4e0a\uff0c\u5916\u6c47\u5bf9\u51b2\u53ef\u80fd\u589e\u52a0\uff1b\u800c\u7531\u4e8e\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u6709\u9650\uff08fiscal impulse limited\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u901a\u8fc7\u652f\u51fa\/\u51cf\u7a0e\u63a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u529b\u5ea6\u4e0d\u5927\uff09\uff0c\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\uff08fixed income\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u503a\u5238\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u4ecd\u5177\u97e7\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u62c9\u7f8e\u8d27\u5e01\u4e0e\u80a1\u7968\u5df2\u53d8\u6210\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u62e5\u6324\u4ea4\u6613\u201d\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6bcf\u79cd\u8d27\u5e01\u90fd\u4ecd\u88ab\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4e70\u5165\u3002\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u5f3a\u52bf\u8868\u73b0\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u957f\u671f\u591a\u5934\u4ed3\u4f4d\u5f00\u59cb\u677e\u52a8\uff08unwind\uff0c\u6307\u51cf\u4ed3\/\u5e73\u4ed3\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u975e\u540c\u6b65\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u98ce\u9669\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u60c5\u7eea\u53cd\u8f6c\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u201c\u6324\u5151\u5f0f\u201d\u64a4\u79bb\uff08rush for the exit\uff0c\u6307\u96c6\u4e2d\u5356\u51fa\u5bfc\u81f4\u6ce2\u52a8\u653e\u5927\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u4e3a\u592e\u884c\u964d\u606f\u505a\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u672c\u5468 Banxico \u4f1a\u8bae\u666e\u904d\u9884\u671f\u964d\u606f 25 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u81f3 10.75%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411\u65e8\u5728\u523a\u6fc0\u589e\u957f\uff1b\u968f\u7740 4 \u6708\u901a\u80c0\u964d\u81f3 4.5%\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u5f00\u59cb\u4e3a\u6bd4\u7d22\u8d70\u5f31\u505a\u4fdd\u62a4\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6d77\u5916\u8d44\u91d1\u5bf9\u8be5\u56fd\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u7684\u914d\u7f6e\u4ecd\u7a33\uff0c\u89c4\u6a21\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u7ea6 750 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u6bd4\u7d22\u5bf9\u51b2\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n

\u8fd9\u9020\u6210\u4e00\u79cd\u5206\u5316\uff1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u559c\u6b22\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u4f46\u62c5\u5fc3\u6bd4\u7d22\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u592e\u884c\u6b63\u5728\u964d\u4f4e\u6b64\u524d\u652f\u6491\u8d27\u5e01\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u7684\u9ad8\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u3002\u4e3b\u52a8\u538b\u7f29\u201c\u5229\u7387\u7f13\u51b2\u201d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u653f\u7b56\u66f4\u80fd\u5bb9\u5fcd\u8d27\u5e01\u504f\u5f31\uff0c\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u884d\u751f\u54c1\uff08derivatives\uff0c\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5982\u671f\u6743\u3001\u8fdc\u671f\u7b49\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u5bf9\u201c\u6bd4\u7d22\u4e0b\u8dcc\u201d\u7684\u4fdd\u62a4\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u4e70\u5165 USD\/MXN \u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08call options\uff0c\u8d4b\u4e88\u672a\u6765\u6309\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\/\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u7d22\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u9632\u8303\u6bd4\u7d22\u8d2c\u503c\uff09\u6216\u4f7f\u7528\u8fdc\u671f\u5408\u7ea6\uff08forward contracts\uff0c\u7ea6\u5b9a\u672a\u6765\u6309\u56fa\u5b9a\u6c47\u7387\u6362\u6c47\uff09\u6765\u4fdd\u62a4\u73b0\u6709\u4ed3\u4f4d\u514d\u53d7\u8d2c\u503c\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u75ab\u60c5\u540e\u201c\u8d85\u7ea7\u6bd4\u7d22\uff08super peso\uff0c\u6307\u6bd4\u7d22\u957f\u671f\u504f\u5f3a\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff09\u201d\u8d8b\u52bf\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6b63\u5728\u964d\u6e29\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d27\u8feb\u6027\u4e5f\u6765\u81ea\u7f8e\u56fd\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u628a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4e0b\u4fee\u81f3 2026 \u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u964d\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u8fd9\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e76\u538b\u5236\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u8d27\u5e01\uff08emerging market currencies\uff0c\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d27\u5e01\uff09\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5373\u5c06\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u6bd4\u7d22\u5904\u5883\u66f4\u5177\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u671f\u6743\u5e02\u573a\uff1a\u6bd4\u7d22 3 \u4e2a\u6708\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u7684\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u5df2\u4ece\u5e74\u521d\u7684 10% \u5347\u81f3 12.5% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u6784\u5efa\u5728\u6c47\u7387\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u65f6\u83b7\u5229\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u6765\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e00\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u5173\u952e\u8981\u70b9\u662f\uff1a\u628a\u6c47\u7387\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u4ecd\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u7684\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u5206\u5f00\u7ba1\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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