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\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u7387\uff08headline inflation\uff0c\u6307\u628a\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u98df\u54c1\u7b49\u90fd\u7b97\u5728\u5185\u7684\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u4ece2\u6708\u7684\u540c\u6bd41.9%\u5347\u81f34\u6708\u7684\u540c\u6bd43.0%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e3b\u8981\u4e0e\u5e03\u4f26\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent crude\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5e38\u7528\u539f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6807\uff09\u4e0a\u6da8\u5e76\u4f20\u5bfc\u5230\u71c3\u6cb9\u6210\u672c\u6709\u5173\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f30\u7b97\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u81ea2\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u71c3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u4e3a\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u8d21\u732e\u7ea61.1\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u51c6\u60c5\u666f\uff08baseline scenario\uff0c\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5047\u8bbe\uff09\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5173\u952e\u77f3\u6cb9\u8fd0\u8f93\u901a\u9053\uff09\u5728\u6570\u5468\u5185\u91cd\u65b0\u5f00\u653e\uff0c\u71c3\u6cb9\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u9884\u8ba1\u57284\u6708\u89c1\u9876\u3002<\/p>\n

2027\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u5c55\u671b<\/h3>\n

4\u6708\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u5347\u81f33%\uff0c\u4e3a2023\u5e74\u672b\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u9ad8\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u95f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0e\u201c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f6e\u6548\u5e94\u201d\uff08second-round effects\uff0c\u6307\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e0e\u5458\u5de5\u56e0\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u5de5\u8d44\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u5c06\u628a\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u63a8\u54112027\u5e74\u521d\u7ea63.5%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f71\u54cd\u4e5f\u4f1a\u63a8\u9ad8\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\uff08core inflation\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u5254\u9664\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0e\u98df\u54c1\u7b49\u6ce2\u52a8\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u957f\u671f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff09\uff0c\u9884\u8ba12027\u5e74\u521d\u540c\u6bd4\u5cf0\u503c\u7ea62.6%\u3002\u76f8\u5173\u5c55\u671b\u4e0e\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\uff08\u5bfc\u81f4\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u66f4\u7d27\u5f20\u3001\u5de5\u8d44\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u4e0a\u6da8\uff09\u3001\u5fb7\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\uff08fiscal stimulus\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u52a0\u5927\u5f00\u652f\u6216\u51cf\u7a0e\u4ee5\u62c9\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u4e1c\u98ce\u9669\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6709\u5173\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ea4\u6613\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u90e8\u7f72<\/h3>\n

\u7a81\u53d1\u80fd\u6e90\u51b2\u51fb\u660e\u663e\u6539\u53d8\u901a\u80c0\u5f62\u52bf\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u76f8\u5e94\u8c03\u6574\u4ed3\u4f4d\u3002\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u901a\u80c04\u6708\u5df2\u8fbe3.0%\uff0c\u8f832\u6708\u76841.9%\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u5b8c\u5168\u7531\u71c3\u6cb9\u6210\u672c\u5e26\u52a8\u3002\u6b27\u76df\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\uff08Eurostat\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u5feb\u901f\u4f30\u7b97\uff08flash estimate\uff0c\u63d0\u524d\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u6570\u636e\uff09\u663e\u793a\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u540c\u6bd4\u4e0a\u6da815%\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5f71\u54cd\u6b63\u5feb\u901f\u4f20\u5bfc\u81f3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u8ba9\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff09\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u66f4\u96be\u8003\u8651\u964d\u606f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u8d27\u5e01\u5bbd\u677e\uff08monetary easing\uff0c\u964d\u606f\u6216\u589e\u52a0\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff09\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u5e76\u5e03\u5c40\u4ece\u66f4\u201c\u9e70\u6d3e\u201d\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u504f\u5411\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u503e\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7684ECB\u7acb\u573a\u4e2d\u83b7\u5229\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u5229\u7387\u4e92\u6362\uff08interest rate swaps\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u4ea4\u6362\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u6d6e\u52a8\u5229\u7387\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u4e2d\u201c\u4ed8\u56fa\u5b9a\u201d\uff08paying fixed\uff0c\u652f\u4ed8\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6536\u53d6\u6d6e\u52a8\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u9884\u671f\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u884c\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u8f83\u9ad8\u65f6\u53d7\u76ca\uff09\u3002\u56de\u987e2022\u5e74\uff0c\u5f53\u901a\u80c0\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u987d\u56fa\u65f6\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u88ab\u8feb\u8fdb\u5165\u66f4\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u88ab\u9884\u6d4b\u4e8e2027\u5e74\u521d\u89c1\u9876\u81f3\u7ea63.5%\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u4fdd\u62a4\uff08inflation protection\uff0c\u5bf9\u51b2\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u770b\u5230\u201c5\u5e745\u5e74\u8fdc\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u4e92\u6362\u201d\uff085-year, 5-year forward inflation swap\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u672a\u6765\u67d0\u6bb5\u957f\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6307\u6807\uff09\u968f\u6700\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u5347\u81f32.4%\u3002\u8fd9\u663e\u793a\u5e02\u573a\u5f00\u59cb\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u901a\u80c0\u66f4\u6301\u4e45\uff0c\u5e26\u6765\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u5bfc\u81f4\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7d27\u5f20\uff08tight labour markets\uff0c\u62db\u5de5\u66f4\u96be\u3001\u5de5\u8d44\u66f4\u6613\u4e0a\u6da8\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u5fb7\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u4ef7\u683c\u538b\u529b\u4fdd\u6301\u504f\u5f3a\u3002\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u9ad8\u4f01\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u672a\u6765\u6570\u5468\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\uff08volatility\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u8d77\u4f0f\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7VSTOXX\u6307\u6570\u671f\u6743\uff08options on the VSTOXX index\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u6b27\u6d32\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff09\u5e03\u5c40\u6b27\u6d32\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u521b\u5efa\u60a8\u7684VT Markets\u771f\u5b9e\u8d26\u6237<\/a>\u00a0\u5e76\u00a0\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613<\/a>\u3002 <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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