{"id":46612,"date":"2026-05-08T10:28:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T10:28:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e4%b8%89%e8%8f%b1%e6%97%a5%e8%81%94%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%ef%bc%88mufg%ef%bc%89%e5%8a%b3%e5%9f%83%e5%be%b7%c2%b7%e9%99%88%e8%ae%a4%e4%b8%ba%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e9%9d%9e%e5%86%9c%e5%b0%b1%e4%b8%9a\/"},"modified":"2026-05-08T10:28:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T10:28:14","slug":"%e4%b8%89%e8%8f%b1%e6%97%a5%e8%81%94%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%ef%bc%88mufg%ef%bc%89%e5%8a%b3%e5%9f%83%e5%be%b7%c2%b7%e9%99%88%e8%ae%a4%e4%b8%ba%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e9%9d%9e%e5%86%9c%e5%b0%b1%e4%b8%9a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e4%b8%89%e8%8f%b1%e6%97%a5%e8%81%94%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%ef%bc%88mufg%ef%bc%89%e5%8a%b3%e5%9f%83%e5%be%b7%c2%b7%e9%99%88%e8%ae%a4%e4%b8%ba%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e9%9d%9e%e5%86%9c%e5%b0%b1%e4%b8%9a\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e09\u83f1\u65e5\u8054\u91d1\u878d\uff08MUFG\uff09\u52b3\u57c3\u5fb7\u00b7\u9648\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u6216\u5c06\u6e29\u548c\u63d0\u632f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6570\u636e\u6307\u54114\u6708\u6570\u636e\u66f4\u5f3a\u52b2"},"content":{"rendered":"

MUFG \u7684 Lloyd Chan \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\uff08NFP\uff0c\u6307\u7f8e\u56fd\u6bcf\u6708\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u201c\u975e\u519c\u4e1a\u201d\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\uff09\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0e\u85aa\u8d44\u589e\u957f\uff08\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u901f\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u6570\u636e\u516c\u5e03\u524d\u4ecd\u7ef4\u6301\u7f8e\u5143\u51c0\u591a\u5934\u4ed3\u4f4d\uff08net long\uff0c\u6307\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6301\u4ed3\u591a\u4e8e\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6301\u4ed3\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed3\u4f4d\u5e76\u672a\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u62e5\u6324\u201d\uff08stretched\uff0c\u6307\u62bc\u6ce8\u540c\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u4eba\u592a\u591a\u3001\u5bb9\u6613\u53cd\u5411\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\uff08DXY\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u5143\u5bf9\u4e00\u7bee\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u8d27\u5e01\u5f3a\u5f31\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff09\u4e00\u76f4\u5b88\u5728 98.00 \u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u800c\u73b0\u8d27\uff08spot\uff0c\u5373\u5373\u65f6\u6210\u4ea4\u4ef7\uff09\u8d70\u52bf\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u6bd4\u6301\u4ed3\u6570\u636e\u6697\u793a\u7684\u66f4\u504f\u5f31\u3002\u4ed6\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u591a\u9879\u5c31\u4e1a\u76f8\u5173\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u652f\u6301 4 \u6708 NFP \u5f3a\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u4e00\u81f4\u9884\u6d4b\u7684 +6.5 \u4e07\u3002<\/p>\n

\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6307\u6807\u663e\u793a\u4e0a\u884c\u7a7a\u95f4<\/h3>\n

4 \u6708\u521d\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u91d1\u4eba\u6570\uff08initial jobless claims\uff0c\u6307\u6bcf\u5468\u9996\u6b21\u7533\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u6551\u6d4e\u7684\u4eba\u6570\uff09\u5e73\u5747\u7ea6 20.3 \u4e07\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e 3 \u6708\u7684 20.9 \u4e07\u3002ADP \u62a5\u544a\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd ADP \u673a\u6784\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u6c11\u95f4\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\uff09\u663e\u793a\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u62db\u8058\u52a0\u5feb\uff0c\u800c ISM \u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u5c31\u4e1a\u6307\u6570\uff08\u8861\u91cf\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u7528\u5de5\u6269\u5f20\u6216\u6536\u7f29\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u6307\u6807\uff09\u4ece 45.2 \u5347\u81f3 48.0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ec4\u5408\u8ba9 NFP \u7684\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u5411\u4e0a\u884c\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u652f\u6491\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\uff08rate expectations\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52bf\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff09\u51fa\u73b0\u660e\u663e\u201c\u9e70\u6d3e\u8f6c\u5411\u201d\uff08hawkish shift\uff0c\u6307\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u5347\u606f\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4ecd\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6570\u636e\u516c\u5e03\u540e\u7f8e\u5143\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0a\u6da8\u7a7a\u95f4\u6216\u53d7\u9650\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd1\u671f 4 \u6708\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u5f3a\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u4e1a 24 \u4e07\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u4e00\u81f4\u9884\u671f\u7684 18 \u4e07\uff0c\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u7a33\u5728\u7ea6 105.50 \u9644\u8fd1\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u7531\u8fd9\u4efd\u6570\u636e\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8d70\u5f3a\uff0c\u7a7a\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u85aa\u8d44\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u4e5f\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u8fbe 4.0%\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u4fc3\u4f7f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\uff09\u51fa\u73b0\u660e\u663e\u9e70\u6d3e\u8f6c\u5411\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u8ba1\u5165\uff08priced in\uff0c\u6307\u4ef7\u683c\u5df2\u53cd\u6620\uff09\u4eca\u5e74\u964d\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\u66f4\u6162\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ec5\u51ed\u8fd9\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u5c31\u8ba9\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\u5927\u5e45\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff08repricing\uff0c\u6307\u5e02\u573a\u8fc5\u901f\u8c03\u6574\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u5e76\u53cd\u6620\u5230\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\uff09\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e0d\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u533a\u95f4\u6ce2\u52a8<\/h3>\n

\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u4e0e 2025 \u5e74\u590f\u5b63\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u5f15\u53d1\u7f8e\u5143\u5927\u6da8\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u4e3a\u901a\u80c0\u62c5\u5fe7\u66f4\u5f3a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u5e94\u66f4\u6fc0\u70c8\u3002\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u201c\u8010\u5fc3\u3001\u770b\u6570\u636e\u51b3\u5b9a\u201d\uff08data-dependent\uff0c\u6307\u4f9d\u636e\u540e\u7eed\u6570\u636e\u518d\u8c03\u6574\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u66f4\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08derivative traders\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u671f\u6743\u3001\u671f\u8d27\u7b49\u201c\u884d\u751f\u5408\u7ea6\u201d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff09\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7f8e\u5143\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u533a\u95f4\u5185\u6765\u56de\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7a81\u7834\u8d70\u9ad8\u3002\u5356\u51fa\u4ef7\u5916\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08out-of-the-money call options\uff0c\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5f53\u524d\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff09\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7f8e\u5143\u8d27\u5e01\u5bf9\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u5728\u4e0a\u884c\u53d7\u9650\u4e0e\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08volatility\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u8d77\u4f0f\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u83b7\u5229\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\u66f4\u5173\u952e\u7684\u662f\u533a\u95f4\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5355\u8fb9\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u9886\u5148\u6307\u6807\uff08leading indicators\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5148\u4e8e\u6574\u4f53\u6570\u636e\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u63d0\u524d\u5224\u65ad\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u521d\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u91d1\u4eba\u6570\u7a33\u5b9a\u5728\u7ea6 21.5 \u4e07\uff0c\u4e5f\u652f\u6301\u8fd9\u4e00\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u6307\u5411\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7a33\u5065\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u672a\u52a0\u901f\u5230\u8feb\u4f7f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8003\u8651\u5347\u606f\uff08hiking rates\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u77ed\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u80cc\u666f\u5e94\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u538b\u5236\u6c47\u5e02\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u975e\u519c\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0e\u85aa\u8d44\u6216\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u5143\uff1b\u4f46\u51c0\u591a\u5934\u4e0d\u62e5\u6324\u3001\u5229\u7387\u96be\u73b0\u9e70\u6d3e\u91cd\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6307\u6807\u504f\u5f3a\u6491DXY\uff0c\u60df\u4e0a\u884c\u53d7\u9650\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u533a\u95f4\u9707\u8361\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u5173\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46612","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46612","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46612"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46612\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46612"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46612"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46612"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}