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\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8868\u793a\u8c08\u5224\u4ecd\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u53cc\u65b9\u90fd\u5e0c\u671b\u907f\u514d\u5728\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff1a\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5173\u952e\u77f3\u6cb9\u8fd0\u8f93\u901a\u9053\uff09\u5468\u8fb9\u5c40\u52bf\u5347\u7ea7\u3002\u6cb9\u4ef7\u56de\u5410\u90e8\u5206\u6da8\u5e45\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u201c\u901a\u80c0\u51b2\u51fb\u201d\uff08inflation shock\uff1a\u7269\u4ef7\u7a81\u7136\u660e\u663e\u4e0a\u5347\u5e76\u5f71\u54cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u4e5f\u968f\u4e4b\u964d\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u56fd\u201c\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u201d\uff08Nonfarm Payrolls\uff1a\u7edf\u8ba1\u9664\u519c\u4e1a\u5916\u7684\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\uff0c\u662f\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6570\u636e\uff09\u663e\u793a\uff0c4\u6708\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u4e1a11.5\u4e07\u4eba\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u7ea66\u4e07\u4eba\uff1b\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u57284.3%\u3002\u201c\u5e73\u5747\u65f6\u85aa\u201d\uff08Average hourly earnings\uff1a\u53cd\u6620\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff09\u6309\u6708\u589e\u901f\u653e\u7f13\uff1b\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6570\uff08University of Michigan consumer sentiment\uff1a\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u770b\u6cd5\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\uff09\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff1b\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff08Treasury yields\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u6765\u89c2\u5bdf\u5e02\u573a\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\uff09\u4e5f\u8d70\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\uff08EUR\/USD\uff09\u57281.1780\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u82f1\u9551\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\uff08GBP\/USD\uff09\u57281.3620\u9644\u8fd1\uff1b\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u65e5\u5143\uff08USD\/JPY\uff09\u8dcc\u5411156.60\u3002\u6fb3\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\uff08AUD\/USD\uff09\u5347\u81f30.7240\u9644\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7ebd\u7ea6\u539f\u6cb9WTI\uff08WTI\uff1a\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8d28\u539f\u6cb9\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u57fa\u51c6\u6cb9\u4ef7\uff09\u5728\u56de\u843d\u540e\u4ecd\u5b88\u5728\u6bcf\u687695.30\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u65b9\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5173\u6ce8\u6cb9\u8f6e\u7ee7\u7eed\u6682\u505c\u901a\u8fc7\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u3002\u9ec4\u91d1\u57284,720\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u4f01\u7a33\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u56de\u843d\u81f397.90\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\uff08geopolitical risk\uff1a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0e\u5730\u533a\u51b2\u7a81\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u98ce\u9669\uff09\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u4e24\u5468\u524d\u63a5\u8fd1100.50\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\u540e\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u907f\u9669\u9700\u6c42\u6b63\u5728\u51cf\u9000\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u901f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u4e5f\u6697\u793a\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u7f13\u548c\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u524a\u5f31\u7f8e\u5143\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u5e03\u5c40\u7f8e\u5143\u7ee7\u7eed\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u5bf9\u8c61\u53ef\u5305\u62ec\u6b27\u5143\u4e0e\u82f1\u9551\u3002\u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u76ee\u524d\u57281.1780\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u53ef\u5173\u6ce8\u201c\u671f\u6743\u7b56\u7565\u201d\uff08options strategies\uff1a\u7528\u671f\u6743\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u6613\u6216\u5bf9\u51b2\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff09\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\uff08volatility\uff1a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff09\u4e0d\u6562\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u6b27\u5143\u76f8\u5bf9\u6709\u5229\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c2022-2023\u5e74\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u5404\u56fd\u592e\u884c\uff08central banks\uff09\u5f80\u5f80\u9700\u8981\u6bd4\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u4e45\u5730\u4fdd\u6301\u8b66\u60d5\u3002<\/p>\n
\u65e5\u5143\u4e5f\u5728\u8f6c\u5f3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u65e5\u5143\u8dcc\u5411156.60\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0b\u884c\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd10\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff0810-year yield\uff1a10\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u662f\u957f\u671f\u5229\u7387\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u53c2\u8003\uff09\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5468\u8dcc\u78343.85%\uff0c\u4e0e\u65e5\u672c\u56fd\u503a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u201c\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5dee\u201d\uff08premium\uff1a\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff09\u6536\u7a84\uff0c\u4f7f\u6301\u6709\u65e5\u5143\u66f4\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6574\u4f53\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u65e5\u5143\u7684\u201c\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\u201d\uff08puts\uff1a\u62bc\u6ce8\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff09\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e0b\u5468\u7f8e\u56fd\u5173\u952e\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u516c\u5e03\u524d\u9700\u4fdd\u6301\u8c28\u614e\u3002\u5468\u4e8c\u7684\u201c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\u201d\uff08CPI\uff1a\u8861\u91cf\u6574\u4f53\u7269\u4ef7\u6c34\u5e73\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff09\u662f\u7126\u70b9\u3002\u82e5\u6570\u636e\u9ad8\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u8fd1\u671f\u8dcc\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5feb\u53cd\u8f6c\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u76ee\u524d\u5bf9\u5468\u4e8c\u201c\u6838\u5fc3CPI\u201d\uff08Core CPI\uff1a\u5254\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u540e\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff09\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\u4e3a\u6309\u6708\u589e\u52a00.2%\uff0c\u4f46\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u591a\u6b21\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0a\u884c\u610f\u5916\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5e94\u4e3a\u201c\u505a\u7a7a\u7f8e\u5143\u201d\uff08short-dollar\uff1a\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u7684\u4ed3\u4f4d\u505a\u597d\u5bf9\u51b2\uff08hedging\uff1a\u7528\u4ea4\u6613\u5de5\u5177\u964d\u4f4e\u4e0d\u5229\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6cb9\u4ef7\u4ecd\u662f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6765\u6e90\u3002WTI\u5728\u5916\u4ea4\u8fdb\u5c55\u4e0b\u4ecd\u7ef4\u6301\u6bcf\u687695.30\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u56de\u987e2025\u5e74\u7ea2\u6d77\u822a\u8fd0\u53d7\u6270\uff08Red Sea disruptions\uff1a\u7ea2\u6d77\u822a\u7ebf\u56e0\u5b89\u5168\u95ee\u9898\u5bfc\u81f4\u8fd0\u8f93\u53d7\u963b\uff09\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u7ebf\u8def\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u5728\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u53d7\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u4e70\u5165WTI\u201c\u4ef7\u5916\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\u201d\uff08out-of-the-money call options\uff1a\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4e8e\u73b0\u4ef7\u3001\u6210\u672c\u8f83\u4f4e\u3001\u7528\u4e8e\u62bc\u6ce8\u5927\u6da8\u6216\u5bf9\u51b2\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u505c\u706b\u6846\u67b6\u7a81\u7136\u7834\u88c2\u5e26\u6765\u6cb9\u4ef7\u6025\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9ec4\u91d1\u57284,720\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u6574\u7406\uff0c\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8d70\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u98ce\u9669\u60c5\u7eea\u6539\u5584\u9650\u5236\u6da8\u5e45\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7a0d\u65e9\u91d1\u4ef7\u66fe\u5347\u81f34,800\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u65b9\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u4f4d\u540e\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u4f53\u652f\u6491\u4ecd\u5f3a\u3002\u82e5\u4e0b\u5468CPI\u504f\u5f31\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff08real yields\uff1a\u540d\u4e49\u5229\u7387\u51cf\u53bb\u901a\u80c0\u540e\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u56de\u62a5\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8d70\u4f4e\uff0c\u6709\u671b\u63a8\u52a8\u91d1\u4ef7\u518d\u5ea6\u6d4b\u8bd5\u524d\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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