{"id":46808,"date":"2026-05-13T17:56:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-13T17:56:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%af%81%e5%88%b8%e8%ae%a4%e4%b8%ba%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e9%a2%84%e7%ae%97%e6%9b%b4%e5%ae%bd%e6%9d%be%e5%b0%86%e6%8e%a8%e9%ab%98%e8%b5%a4%e5%ad%97%e5%89%8d%e6%99%af%ef%bc%8c\/"},"modified":"2026-05-13T17:56:22","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T17:56:22","slug":"%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%af%81%e5%88%b8%e8%ae%a4%e4%b8%ba%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e9%a2%84%e7%ae%97%e6%9b%b4%e5%ae%bd%e6%9d%be%e5%b0%86%e6%8e%a8%e9%ab%98%e8%b5%a4%e5%ad%97%e5%89%8d%e6%99%af%ef%bc%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%af%81%e5%88%b8%e8%ae%a4%e4%b8%ba%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e9%a2%84%e7%ae%97%e6%9b%b4%e5%ae%bd%e6%9d%be%e5%b0%86%e6%8e%a8%e9%ab%98%e8%b5%a4%e5%ad%97%e5%89%8d%e6%99%af%ef%bc%8c\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9053\u660e\u8bc1\u5238\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32\u9884\u7b97\u66f4\u5bbd\u677e\u5c06\u63a8\u9ad8\u8d64\u5b57\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u5e76\u52a0\u5927\u6fb3\u6d32\u8054\u50a8\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u98ce\u9669"},"content":{"rendered":"

TD Securities \u5168\u7403\u7b56\u7565\u56e2\u961f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32 2026\/27 \u8d22\u653f\u9884\u7b97\u7565\u504f\u523a\u6fc0\u589e\u957f\uff08\u5373\u653f\u5e9c\u5f00\u652f\u4e0e\u51cf\u7a0e\u529b\u5ea6\u8f83\u5927\uff09\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\u66f4\u5bbd\u677e\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\uff08Treasury\uff09\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6bd4\u6fb3\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08RBA\uff09\u66f4\u4e50\u89c2\u3002\u9884\u7b97\u6587\u4ef6\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u524d\u77bb\u9884\u6d4b\u671f\u201d\uff08forward estimates\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6307\u672a\u6765\u7ea6 4 \u5e74\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u8d22\u653f\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\uff09\u5185\uff0c\u201c\u57fa\u7840\u73b0\u91d1\u6536\u652f\u201d\uff08underlying cash balance\uff1a\u628a\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\/\u975e\u7ecf\u5e38\u6027\u9879\u76ee\u5254\u9664\u540e\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u653f\u5e9c\u7ecf\u5e38\u6027\u8d22\u653f\u72b6\u51b5\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u6536\u652f\uff09\u5c06\u6539\u5584 450 \u4ebf\u6fb3\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u8868\u9762\u8d64\u5b57\u201d\uff08headline deficit\uff1a\u9884\u7b97\u6587\u4ef6\u5bf9\u5916\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u8d64\u5b57\u53e3\u5f84\uff09\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u4ece 2025\/26 \u8d22\u5e74\u7684 GDP 1.6% \u6269\u5927\u81f3 2026\/27 \u8d22\u5e74\u7684 2.1%\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u201c\u8868\u9762\u73b0\u91d1\u8d64\u5b57\u201d\uff08headline cash deficit\uff1a\u6309\u603b\u4f53\u53e3\u5f84\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u8d64\u5b57\uff09\u76f8\u5bf9\u201c\u57fa\u7840\u53e3\u5f84\u201d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5c06\u66f4\u5dee\uff0c\u8f83\u6b64\u524d\u9884\u6d4b\u591a\u6076\u5316\u7ea6 64 \u4ebf\u6fb3\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8d22\u653f\u524d\u666f\u4e0e RBA \u542b\u4e49<\/h3>\n

TD Securities \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9884\u7b97\u4e2d\u5bf9\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\uff08commodity\uff0c\u5982\u94c1\u77ff\u77f3\u3001\u7164\u70ad\u7b49\u8d44\u6e90\u54c1\uff09\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u504f\u4fdd\u5b88\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u610f\u5473\u7740\u672a\u6765\u5b9e\u9645\u8d64\u5b57\u4f1a\u5c0f\u4e8e\u76ee\u524d\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u6bd4 RBA \u7684\u66f4\u8d34\u8fd1\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\uff0cRBA \u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u5730\u201c\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\u201d\uff08policy tightening\uff1a\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u4e45\uff0c\u4ee5\u538b\u4f4e\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6fb3\u6d32\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5de5\u8d44\u4e0a\u6da8 0.8%\uff08\u6309\u5b63 q\/q\uff1a\u4e0e\u4e0a\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u76f8\u6bd4\uff1b\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f cons\uff1a0.8%\uff0cTD \u9884\u6d4b\uff1a0.8%\uff09\uff0c\u6309\u5e74\uff08y\/y\uff1a\u4e0e\u53bb\u5e74\u540c\u671f\u76f8\u6bd4\uff09\u4e3a 3.3%\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u7b26\u5408 RBA \u5728 5 \u6708\u300a\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e\u300b\uff08SoMP\uff09\u4e2d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u5e94\u4e0d\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n

\u62a5\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7d27\u5f20\u3001\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u4ecd\u5728\uff0c\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u901f\u4f9d\u7136\u53d7\u63a7\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u4e5f\u63d0\u5230 RBA \u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff1a\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\uff08inflation expectations\uff1a\u5927\u4f17\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7269\u4ef7\u6da8\u5e45\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u5e74\u5f71\u54cd\u85aa\u8d44\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u5458\u5de5\u4e3a\u7ef4\u6301\u201c\u5b9e\u9645\u5de5\u8d44\u201d\uff08real wages\uff1a\u6263\u9664\u901a\u80c0\u540e\u7684\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\uff09\u800c\u4e89\u53d6\u66f4\u9ad8\u52a0\u85aa\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653f\u5e9c\u8fd9\u4efd\u65b0\u9884\u7b97\u7565\u504f\u6269\u5f20\uff08expansionary\uff1a\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff09\uff0c\u4e0e RBA \u538b\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u76f8\u51b2\u30024 \u6708\u6700\u65b0\u6708\u5ea6 CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u610f\u5916\u4e0a\u884c\u81f3 3.8%\uff0c\u4ee4\u592e\u884c\u51b3\u7b56\u7a7a\u95f4\u66f4\u53d7\u9650\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e94\u5173\u6ce8\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u6fb3\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6fb3\u5143\u4ed3\u4f4d\u4e0e\u671f\u6743\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u653f\u5e9c\u8f83\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0e RBA \u66f4\u8c28\u614e\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u660e\u663e\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u8fd9\u8ba9\u4eba\u60f3\u8d77 2025 \u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u8fc7\u65e9\u62bc\u6ce8\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u80c0\u6301\u7eed\u504f\u9ad8\u8feb\u4f7f RBA \u6539\u53d8\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u82e5\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u66f4\u201c\u504f\u4e50\u89c2\u201d\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u6700\u7ec8\u6b63\u786e\uff0cRBA \u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8feb\u5c06\u653f\u7b56\u6536\u7d27\u5230\u6bd4\u5e02\u573a\u5f53\u524d\u5b9a\u4ef7\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff08\u76ee\u524d\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff1a\u6307\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\/\u6389\u671f\u7b49\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6700\u65b0\u5b63\u5ea6\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u5e45 0.8% \u867d\u7b26\u5408\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u5168\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u4ecd\u7d27\uff0c4 \u6708\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u5728 3.9% \u7684\u4f4e\u4f4d\u3002\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\uff08unemployment rate\uff1a\u5931\u4e1a\u4eba\u53e3\u5360\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff09\u504f\u4f4e\u901a\u5e38\u4ee3\u8868\u7528\u5de5\u96be\uff0c\u5458\u5de5\u5728\u8c08\u85aa\u65f6\u66f4\u6709\u8bae\u4ef7\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u53ef\u8981\u6c42\u66f4\u9ad8\u85aa\u8d44\u4ee5\u62b5\u6d88\u751f\u6d3b\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f RBA \u91cd\u70b9\u76d1\u6d4b\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n

\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u671f\u6743\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff08option pricing\uff1a\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u6240\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u9884\u671f\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5c1a\u672a\u5145\u5206\u53cd\u6620\u672a\u6765\u6570\u6708 RBA \u201c\u504f\u9e70\u6d3e\u610f\u5916\u201d\uff08hawkish surprise\uff1a\u592e\u884c\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u66f4\u5f3a\u786c\u6297\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4e70\u5165\u77ed\u671f\u9650 AUD\/USD \u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08call option\uff1a\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u6309\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5165\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u5356\u51fa\u201c\u865a\u503c\u201d\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff08out-of-the-money put\uff1a\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u4f4e\u4e8e\u73b0\u4ef7\u3001\u76ee\u524d\u4e0d\u5212\u7b97\u884c\u6743\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff1b\u5356\u51fa\u4ee3\u8868\u6536\u53d6\u6743\u5229\u91d1\u4f46\u627f\u62c5\u4e0b\u8dcc\u98ce\u9669\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u5e03\u5c40\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u6fb3\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\uff0c\u5e76\u5177\u5907\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f73\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u9ad8\u201c\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u201d\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u4ece\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u5012\u63a8\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff09\uff1b\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u505a\u591a\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08long volatility\uff1a\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u53d8\u5927\u3001\u901a\u5e38\u901a\u8fc7\u4e70\u5165\u671f\u6743\u5b9e\u73b0\uff09\u7684\u4ed3\u4f4d\u66f4\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u6fb3\u5143\u76f8\u5bf9\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u592e\u884c\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u9e70\u6d3e\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u82e5\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff08Federal Reserve\uff09\u91ca\u653e\u53ef\u80fd\u6682\u505c\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u201c\u5229\u5dee\u201d\uff08interest rate differential\uff1a\u4e24\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u5dee\u8ddd\uff09\u6269\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u5229\u597d\u6fb3\u5143\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u505a\u591a AUD\/USD\uff08long AUD\/USD\uff1a\u62bc\u6ce8\u6fb3\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u5347\u503c\uff09\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u6fb3\u6d32\u65b0\u9884\u7b97\u504f\u6269\u5f20\u3001\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u66f4\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u6216\u903cRBA\u66f4\u9e70\u6d3e\u6536\u7d27\u3002\u867d\u5de5\u8d44\u6e29\u548c\u4f46\u901a\u80c0\u56de\u5347\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u4f4e\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u672a\u5145\u5206\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002\u628a\u63e1\u6fb3\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\uff1a\u505a\u591aAUD\/USD\u4e0e\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46808","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46808"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46808\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46808"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46808"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46808"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}