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\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0Fed\uff094\u670828\u65e5\u81f329\u65e5\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u5b98\u5458\u5e0c\u671b\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u5220\u9664\u201c\u503e\u5411\u66f4\u5bbd\u677e\u201d\uff08easing bias\uff0c\u6307\u58f0\u660e\u504f\u5411\u672a\u6765\u964d\u606f\u7684\u63aa\u8f9e\uff09\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u591a\u6570\u4e0e\u4f1a\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u901a\u80c0\u7ee7\u7eed\u9ad8\u4e8e2%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\uff08policy firming\uff0c\u6307\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u4e45\u4ee5\u538b\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5408\u9002\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5b98\u5458\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u4ee5\u53ca\u5173\u7a0e\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u662f\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u4e0a\u884c\u98ce\u9669\uff08upside risks\uff0c\u6307\u8ba9\u901a\u80c0\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff09\u3002\u6709\u4eba\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u6da8\u4ef7\u538b\u529b\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u201c\u56fa\u5316\u201d\uff08embed\uff0c\u6307\u6da8\u4ef7\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u666e\u904d\u3001\u66f4\u96be\u56de\u843d\uff09\uff0c\u8ba9\u672a\u6765\u964d\u606f\u66f4\u96be\u63a8\u8fdb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653f\u7b56\u5c55\u671b\u4e0e\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669<\/h3>\n

\u90e8\u5206\u4e0e\u4f1a\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\uff08geopolitics\uff0c\u6307\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0e\u5730\u533a\u95f4\u653f\u6cbb\u51b2\u7a81\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff09\u8d8b\u7a33\u4e14\u901a\u80c0\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u7a0d\u665a\u964d\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u5408\u7406\u3002\u53e6\u6709\u8f83\u5c0f\u4e00\u7ec4\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5e94\u7b49\u5f85\u66f4\u660e\u786e\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u786e\u8ba4\u201c\u901a\u80c0\u964d\u6e29\u201d\uff08disinflation\uff0c\u6307\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u7269\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u5df2\u7a33\u6b65\u56de\u5230\u6b63\u8f68\uff0c\u518d\u8003\u8651\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff08policy rate\uff0c\u6307\u592e\u884c\u8bbe\u5b9a\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u533a\u95f4\uff09\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u7ef4\u6301\u57283.50%\u20133.75%\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002Stephen Miran\u652f\u6301\u964d\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff08basis point\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0bp\uff1b1\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9=0.01\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c25bp=0.25\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff09\u3002Beth Hammack\u3001Neel Kashkari\u548cLorie Logan\u5bf9\u4fdd\u7559\u201c\u503e\u5411\u66f4\u5bbd\u677e\u201d\u63aa\u8f9e\u6301\u53cd\u5bf9\u610f\u89c1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd1\u671f\u6570\u636e\u5305\u62ec\uff1a4\u6708CPI\u901a\u80c0\uff08CPI inflation\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\u8861\u91cf\u7684\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u540c\u6bd43.8%\uff1b\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\uff08Nonfarm Payrolls\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u7f8e\u56fd\u6bcf\u6708\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6570\u636e\uff09\u589e\u52a011.5\u4e07\u4eba\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e3\u6708\u768418.5\u4e07\u4eba\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u76846.2\u4e07\u4eba\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5de5\u4f5c\u4eba\u5458\uff08staff\uff09\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u8f833\u6708\u7565\u6709\u4e0a\u8c03\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7eaa\u8981\u4e8e\u5468\u4e0918:00 GMT\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u6b64\u524d13:15 GMT\u5df2\u6709\u9884\u89c8\u3002FedWatch\uff08\u829d\u5546\u6240CME\u6839\u636e\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\u63a8\u7b97\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6982\u7387\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u523012\u6708\u52a0\u606f25bp\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a40.1%\uff0c\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a43.4%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u5143\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u4ed3\u4f4d<\/h3>\n

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