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shocks\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4e2d\u65ad\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u98d9\u5347\u5bfc\u81f4\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u7684\u5904\u7406\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u201c\u900f\u89c6\/\u5ffd\u7565\u77ed\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\u201d\uff08looking through\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u662f\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5ea6\u56e0\u4e3a\u77ed\u671f\u4f9b\u7ed9\u56e0\u7d20\u800c\u6025\u7740\u8c03\u6574\u653f\u7b56\uff09\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u6548\u679c\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u66f4\u9891\u5bc6\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u957f\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\uff08long-term inflation expectations\uff0c\u6307\u5bb6\u5ead\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u901a\u80c0\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff09\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4ecd\u53d7\u63a7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u524d\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5904\u4e8e\u8f83\u4f73\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5927\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u6682\u65f6\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\uff08stay on hold\uff0c\u6307\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u6697\u793a\u5e02\u573a\u77ed\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301\u533a\u95f4\u9707\u8361\uff08range-bound\uff0c\u6307\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u6765\u56de\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u66f4\u5e94\u5173\u6ce8\u65b0\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u8bb2\u8bdd\u3002\u505a\u884d\u751f\u54c1\uff08derivatives\uff0c\u6307\u671f\u6743\u3001\u671f\u8d27\u7b49\u4e0e\u6807\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u6302\u94a9\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff0c\u5e94\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u5e94\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u201c\u610f\u5916\u503c\u201d\uff08economic surprises\uff0c\u6307\u7ed3\u679c\u660e\u663e\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6216\u4f4e\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff09\u66f4\u654f\u611f\u3001\u6ce2\u52a8\u66f4\u5267\u70c8\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8ddf\u7740\u592e\u884c\u53e3\u5934\u6307\u5f15\u8d70\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u786e\u5b9e\u4e0d\u5f00\u5fc3\uff0c\u4ece\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6570\uff08University of Michigan consumer sentiment index\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u8bfb\u6570\u8dcc\u81f367.4\u53ef\u89c1\u4e00\u6591\u3002\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ecd\u6301\u7eed\u6d88\u8d39\uff1b4\u6708\u96f6\u552e\u9500\u552e\uff08retail sales\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u793e\u4f1a\u96f6\u552e\u7aef\u6d88\u8d39\u91d1\u989d\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u6570\u636e\uff09\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u6301\u5e73\u4f46\u672a\u8f6c\u8d1f\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u77db\u76fe\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u7528\u671f\u6743\uff08options\uff0c\u4e00\u79cd\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e70\u65b9\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5165\u6216\u5356\u51fa\u6807\u7684\u6743\u5229\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u6765\u5bf9\u51b2\uff08protect\/hedge\uff0c\u6307\u7528\u5de5\u5177\u964d\u4f4e\u4e0d\u5229\u884c\u60c5\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u635f\u5931\uff09\u6d88\u8d39\u7a81\u7136\u8d70\u5f31\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6d88\u8d39\u4e00\u65e6\u660e\u663e\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u5c06\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6c\u5f31\u7684\u660e\u786e\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u56f4\u7ed5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201c\u610f\u5916\u503c\u201d\u7684\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n<p>\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u4ecd\u7a33\u5065\uff0c\u6700\u65b0\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\uff08jobs report\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6307\u7f8e\u56fd\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\uff09\u65b0\u589e17.5\u4e07\u4e2a\u5c97\u4f4d\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\uff08unemployment rate\uff09\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u8f83\u4f4e\u76843.9%\u3002\u4f01\u4e1a\u901a\u8fc7\u81ea\u7136\u51cf\u5458\u800c\u975e\u88c1\u5458\u6765\u63d0\u5347\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u4f01\u4e1a\u76c8\u5229\uff08corporate earnings\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8feb\u4f7f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9a6c\u4e0a\u8f6c\u5411\u964d\u606f\uff08rate cuts\uff0c\u6307\u4e0b\u8c03\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff09\u3002\u5c31\u4e1a\u9762\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u62bc\u6ce8\u201c\u5f88\u5feb\u964d\u606f\u201d\u4ecd\u504f\u65e9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76ee\u524dVIX\u6307\u6570\uff08VIX\uff0c\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6570\u201d\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u6807\u666e500\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u9690\u542b\u9884\u671f\uff09\u572813\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u63a8\u7684\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u9884\u671f\uff09\u76f8\u5bf9\u4fbf\u5b9c\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u9002\u5408\u505a\u201c\u5356\u51fa\u671f\u6743\u6743\u5229\u91d1\u201d\uff08selling options premium\uff0c\u6307\u6536\u53d6\u671f\u6743\u8d39\u3001\u62bc\u6ce8\u884c\u60c5\u4e0d\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u505a\u94c1\u9e70\uff08iron condor\uff0c\u4e00\u79cd\u540c\u65f6\u5356\u51fa\/\u4e70\u5165\u4e0d\u540c\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\u3001\u8d5a\u53d6\u6743\u5229\u91d1\u3001\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u533a\u95f4\u884c\u60c5\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u7b56\u7565\uff09\uff0c\u4ece\u5e02\u573a\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u533a\u95f4\u4e2d\u83b7\u5229\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5728\u91cd\u8981\u6570\u636e\u53d1\u5e03\u524d\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u5373\u5c06\u516c\u5e03\u7684CPI\uff09\uff0c\u8be5\u7b56\u7565\u98ce\u9669\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56de\u987e\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u201c\u5ffd\u7565\u77ed\u671f\u4f9b\u7ed9\u51b2\u51fb\u201d\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u57282025\u5e74\u672b\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u6765\u51b2\u51fb\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u96be\u5e94\u5bf9\u3002\u6700\u65b0CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6307\u6807\uff09\u663e\u793a\u901a\u80c0\u5c0f\u5e45\u653e\u7f13\u81f33.4%\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u901a\u80c0\u518d\u5ea6\u56de\u5347\uff08reacceleration\uff0c\u6307\u901a\u80c0\u589e\u901f\u91cd\u65b0\u52a0\u5feb\uff09\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc5\u901f\u8f6c\u5411\u3002\u73b0\u9636\u6bb5\u957f\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u4ecd\u53d7\u63a7\uff0c\u8fd9\u8ba9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6709\u66f4\u5927\u64cd\u4f5c\u7a7a\u95f4\uff08breathing room\uff0c\u6307\u4e0d\u5fc5\u6025\u4e8e\u884c\u52a8\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u5b9a\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5982\u4f55\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u66f4\u5173\u6ce8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9a71\u52a8\uff08event-driven\uff0c\u6307\u56f4\u7ed5\u7279\u5b9a\u6570\u636e\/\u4e8b\u4ef6\u524d\u540e\u5e03\u5c40\uff09\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u5c31\u4e1a\u6216\u901a\u80c0\u62a5\u544a\u524d\u4e70\u5165\u77ed\u671f\u671f\u6743\uff08short-term options\uff0c\u5982\u5468\u5ea6\u671f\u6743\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u91c7\u7528\u8de8\u5f0f\u7ec4\u5408\uff08weekly 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