{"id":47574,"date":"2026-05-25T13:20:13","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T13:20:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e9%a6%96%e5%ba%a6%e4%bb%a5%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e4%b8%bb%e5%b8%ad%e8%ba%ab%e4%bb%bd%e4%ba%ae%e7%9b%b8%ef%bc%8c%e9%87%8a%e6%94%be%e6%b7%a1%e5%8c%96%e5%89%8d%e7%9e%bb%e6%8c%87\/"},"modified":"2026-05-25T13:20:13","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T13:20:13","slug":"%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e9%a6%96%e5%ba%a6%e4%bb%a5%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e4%b8%bb%e5%b8%ad%e8%ba%ab%e4%bb%bd%e4%ba%ae%e7%9b%b8%ef%bc%8c%e9%87%8a%e6%94%be%e6%b7%a1%e5%8c%96%e5%89%8d%e7%9e%bb%e6%8c%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e9%a6%96%e5%ba%a6%e4%bb%a5%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e4%b8%bb%e5%b8%ad%e8%ba%ab%e4%bb%bd%e4%ba%ae%e7%9b%b8%ef%bc%8c%e9%87%8a%e6%94%be%e6%b7%a1%e5%8c%96%e5%89%8d%e7%9e%bb%e6%8c%87\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6c83\u4ec0\u9996\u5ea6\u4ee5\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8eab\u4efd\u4eae\u76f8\uff0c\u91ca\u653e\u6de1\u5316\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u5347\u606f\u4e0e\u7f8e\u5143\u6ce2\u52a8\u98ce\u9669\u5347\u6e29"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kevin Warsh\u4e8e5\u670822\u65e5\u5728\u767d\u5bab\u5ba3\u8a93\u5c31\u4efb\u7b2c17\u4efb\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u66f4\u66ff\u8ba9\u5916\u754c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u672a\u6765\u5982\u4f55\u4f20\u8fbe\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u65b0\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u518d\u6b21\u8868\u660e\u66f4\u504f\u597d\u66f4\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u3002Warsh\u5219\u63d0\u51fa\u4ee5\u201c\u6539\u9769\u201d\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8f74\u7684\u8bae\u7a0b\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e0d\u518d\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u53ea\u770b\u8fc7\u53bb\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6559\u6761\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u63a8\u52a8\u201c\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\u4e0e\u66f4\u5f3a\u589e\u957f\u201d\u4e24\u5927\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5e76\u7f29\u51cf\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\uff08\u6307\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6301\u6709\u7684\u56fd\u503a\u4e0e\u6309\u63ed\u8bc1\u5238\u7b49\u8d44\u4ea7\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u89c4\u6a21\u53d8\u5c0f\u901a\u5e38\u4ee3\u8868\u6536\u56de\u90e8\u5206\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

Warsh\u9884\u8ba1\u4f1a\u8f6c\u5411\u51cf\u5c11\u201c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u201d\uff08\u5373\u63d0\u524d\u5411\u5e02\u573a\u6697\u793a\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff09\uff0c\u91cd\u70b9\u662f\u6de1\u5316\u201c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u201d\uff08dot plot\uff1a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u56fe\uff09\u4e0e\u88ab\u5e02\u573a\u9010\u5b57\u89e3\u8bfb\u7684\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u3002\u4ed6\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u57286\u6708\u7684\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\u6458\u8981\u300b\uff08SEP\uff1aSummary of Economic Projections\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b9a\u671f\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u5229\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\uff09\u4e2d\u4e0d\u516c\u5e03\u5229\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u6b64\u4e3e\u5c06\u964d\u4f4e\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08FOMC\uff1aFederal Open Market Committee\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u7b56\u673a\u6784\uff09\u201c\u9884\u5148\u627f\u8bfa\u201d\u67d0\u6761\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u7ebf\u7684\u611f\u89c9\u3002Warsh\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u7684\u9996\u573aFOMC\u4f1a\u8bae\u5b9a\u57286\u670817\u65e5\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u672c\u5468\u56db\u516c\u5e03\u7684PCE\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u504f\u70ed\uff08\u9ad8\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6c9f\u901a\u65b9\u5f0f\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u65e9\u9762\u4e34\u8003\u9a8c\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u52a0\u5267\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u53ca\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba9\u7f8e\u5143\u4ed3\u4f4d\uff08\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u591a\u7a7a\u7684\u6301\u4ed3\u65b9\u5411\u4e0e\u89c4\u6a21\uff09\u9762\u4e34\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u65f6\u4ee3\u4e0e\u66f4\u5c11\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15<\/h3>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0cWarsh\u57285\u670822\u65e5\u5ba3\u8a93\u5c31\u804c\uff0c\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8fdb\u5165\u65b0\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba1\u5212\u51cf\u5c11\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6de1\u5316\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\uff0c\u7b49\u4e8e\u62ff\u6389\u5e02\u573a\u7528\u6765\u9884\u5224\u653f\u7b56\u52a8\u4f5c\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u77ed\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u63a5\u53d7\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u660e\u786e\u7ebf\u7d22\u4f1a\u66f4\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76ee\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u7126\u70b9\u8f6c\u5411\u672c\u5468\u56db\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\uff08PCE\uff1aPersonal Consumption Expenditures\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u504f\u597d\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff09\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u201c\u6838\u5fc3PCE\u201d\uff08\u5254\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u6ce2\u52a8\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u957f\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u8d8b\u52bf\uff09\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\u9884\u6d4b\u7ea6\u4e3a\u540c\u6bd42.7%\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6570\u636e\u504f\u70ed\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8fbe\u52303.0%\u6216\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u5728\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6e05\u6670\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u7ebf\u56fe\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6469\u64e6\u53ef\u80fd\u660e\u663e\u52a0\u5927\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e94\u7eb3\u5165\u66f4\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u7684\u60c5\u5883\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u8fd1\u51e0\u6b21\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u503a\u5e02MOVE\u6307\u6570\uff08\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3001\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u503a\u5e02\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6570\u201d\uff09\u5df2\u56de\u5347\u5230100\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u7d27\u5f20\u60c5\u7eea\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u7b56\u7565\u4e0e\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5f71\u54cd<\/h3>\n

\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7b56\u7565\u5e94\u4ece\u62bc\u6ce8\u5355\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u8f6c\u5411\u66f4\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u5e03\u5c40\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\u4e0e\u4e3b\u8981\u7f8e\u5143\u8d27\u5e01\u5bf9\u7684\u671f\u6743\u6301\u6709\u201c\u505a\u591a\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u201d\uff08long volatility\uff1a\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u53d8\u5927\u3001\u800c\u975e\u62bc\u6ce8\u6da8\u6216\u8dcc\uff09\u7684\u4ed3\u4f4d\u8f83\u4e3a\u7a33\u59a5\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u4e70\u5165\u8de8\u5f0f\u671f\u6743\uff08straddle\uff1a\u540c\u4e00\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u4e0e\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff09\u6216\u5bbd\u8de8\u5f0f\u671f\u6743\uff08strangle\uff1a\u540c\u4e00\u5230\u671f\u65e5\uff0c\u4f46\u5206\u522b\u4e70\u5165\u8f83\u9ad8\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u8f83\u4f4e\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff09\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5229\u7387\u5927\u6da8\u6216\u5927\u8dcc\uff0c\u90fd\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u83b7\u5229\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u5229\u7528\u201c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u672c\u8eab\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u653f\u7b56\u6c9f\u901a\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u611f\uff0c\u8ba9\u4eba\u60f3\u8d77\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u201c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8bdd\u672f\u201d\uff08Fedspeak\uff1a\u5b98\u65b9\u8868\u8ff0\u8f83\u542b\u84c4\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u9700\u8981\u53cd\u590d\u89e3\u8bfb\uff09\u3002\u968f\u77406\u670817\u65e5FOMC\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e34\u8fd1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u5e02\u573a\u731c\u6d4b\u4f1a\u5347\u6e29\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u70b9\u4e0e\u5b98\u5458\u53d1\u8a00\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8fc7\u5ea6\u89e3\u8bfb\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u731c\u8c1c\u201d\u683c\u5c40\uff0c\u6216\u5c06\u4f7f\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u5916\u6c47\uff08FX\uff09\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff09\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u504f\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Warsh\u5ba3\u8a93\u638c\u8235\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff0c\u6c9f\u901a\u6216\u201c\u56de\u5230\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u5f0f\u731c\u8c1c\u201d\uff1a\u6de1\u5316\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u3001\u51cf\u5c11\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u751a\u81f3SEP\u4e0d\u516c\u5e03\u5229\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u3002PCE\u82e5\u504f\u70ed\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u4e0e\u7f8e\u5143\u4ed3\u4f4d\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u98d9\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47574","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47574"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47574\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47574"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47574"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47574"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}