{"id":47701,"date":"2026-05-27T00:22:34","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T00:22:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e4%b8%89%e8%8f%b1%e6%97%a5%e8%81%94%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e9%9b%86%e5%9b%a2%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%ef%bc%9a%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb%e4%b8%8e%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e5%86%b2%e5%87%bb%e6%88%96%e6%8e%a8%e5%8d%87%e7%be%8e\/"},"modified":"2026-05-27T00:22:34","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T00:22:34","slug":"%e4%b8%89%e8%8f%b1%e6%97%a5%e8%81%94%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e9%9b%86%e5%9b%a2%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%ef%bc%9a%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb%e4%b8%8e%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e5%86%b2%e5%87%bb%e6%88%96%e6%8e%a8%e5%8d%87%e7%be%8e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e4%b8%89%e8%8f%b1%e6%97%a5%e8%81%94%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e9%9b%86%e5%9b%a2%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%ef%bc%9a%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb%e4%b8%8e%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e5%86%b2%e5%87%bb%e6%88%96%e6%8e%a8%e5%8d%87%e7%be%8e\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e09\u83f1\u65e5\u8054\u91d1\u878d\u96c6\u56e2\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u51b2\u51fb\u6216\u63a8\u5347\u7f8e\u5143\/\u91cc\u62c9\u5e74\u5e95\u903c\u8fd150.500"},"content":{"rendered":"

MUFG \u5206\u6790\u5e08\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u91cc\u62c9\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u6b63\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\u201c\u8d38\u6613\u6761\u4ef6\u51b2\u51fb\u201d\uff08terms-of-trade shock\uff1a\u51fa\u53e3\u4ef7\u683c\u76f8\u5bf9\u8fdb\u53e3\u4ef7\u683c\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u7b49\u540c\u7528\u66f4\u591a\u51fa\u53e3\u6362\u540c\u6837\u8fdb\u53e3\uff0c\u5916\u90e8\u6536\u652f\u53d8\u5dee\uff09\u524a\u5f31\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u5bf9\u5916\u72b6\u51b5\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u6307\u51fa\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u80fd\u529b\u6709\u9650\u3001\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5e76\u8b66\u544a\u98ce\u9669\u5929\u5e73\u5df2\u8f6c\u5411\uff1a\u91cc\u62c9\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5feb\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u6216\u51fa\u73b0\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u201c\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u8d2c\u503c\u201d\uff08one-off devaluation\uff1a\u6c47\u7387\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u7a81\u7136\u8df3\u8dcc\u5f0f\u4e0b\u8c03\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u4eec\u63d0\u5230\uff0c2\u6708\u4e0b\u65ec\u4f0a\u6717\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81\u7206\u53d1\u540e\uff0c\u8fd1\u6708\u91cc\u62c9\u8d2c\u503c\u52a0\u5feb\u3002\u50a8\u5907\u57283\u6708\u5927\u5e45\u6d88\u8017\u540e\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u66fe\u8d8b\u7a33\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0a\u5468\u6700\u65b0\u4e0d\u5229\u653f\u6cbb\u53d1\u5c55\u540e\u518d\u5ea6\u627f\u538b\uff1b\u5e02\u573a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u7528\u4e8e\u62a4\u76d8\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u201c\u5f39\u836f\u201d\uff08ammunition\uff1a\u53ef\u52a8\u7528\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u4e0e\u5e72\u9884\u7a7a\u95f4\uff09\u66f4\u5c11\u3002\u82e5\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u538b\u529b\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e2d\u4e1c\u51b2\u7a81\u6076\u5316\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u51b2\u51fb\u98ce\u9669\u5347\u6e29\uff0cMUFG \u8868\u793a\u50a8\u5907\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u964d\u53ef\u80fd\u653e\u5927\u629b\u552e\uff0c\u628a\u7f8e\u5143\/\u91cc\u62c9\u63a8\u5411\u5e74\u5e95 50.500\u3002<\/p>\n

\u91cc\u62c9\u9762\u5bf9\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u538b\u529b<\/h3>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u571f\u8033\u5176\u91cc\u62c9\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0e\u9ad8\u6602\u80fd\u6e90\u8fdb\u53e3\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u6b63\u5bf9\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d22\u52a1\u9020\u6210\u538b\u529b\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\/\u91cc\u62c9\u76ee\u524d\u7ea6\u5728 46.20 \u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0a\u884c\u538b\u529b\u6b63\u5728\u7d2f\u79ef\u3002<\/p>\n

\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u9690\u5fe7\uff0c\u4f7f\u592e\u884c\u62a4\u6c47\u80fd\u529b\u53d7\u9650\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u51c0\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u201d\uff08net FX reserves\uff1a\u6263\u9664\u77ed\u671f\u5916\u5e01\u8d1f\u503a\u3001\u4e92\u6362\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u771f\u6b63\u52a8\u7528\u7684\u5916\u6c47\uff09\u8dcc\u81f3 \u8d1f650\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5904\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u592e\u884c\u5f88\u96be\u8fdb\u884c\u6709\u6548\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\uff08intervention\uff1a\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e70\u5356\u5916\u6c47\u4ee5\u5f71\u54cd\u6c47\u7387\uff09\u3002\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8db3\u591f\u201c\u540e\u76fe\u201d\uff08backstop\uff1a\u6700\u540e\u9632\u7ebf\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u4e0e\u5de5\u5177\uff09\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u51b2\u51fb\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u91cc\u62c9\u51fa\u73b0\u66f4\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u4ecd\u524a\u5f31\u4fe1\u5fc3\u30022026\u5e744\u6708\u6700\u65b0\u8bfb\u6570\u663e\u793a\u901a\u80c0\u540c\u6bd4 78%\u3002\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u6cb9\u4ef7\u7ef4\u6301\u6bcf\u6876\u7ea6 95 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u8fdb\u53e3\u8d26\u5355\u6269\u5927\u201c\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u201d\uff08current account deficit\uff1a\u8d38\u6613\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u6536\u76ca\u7b49\u7ecf\u5e38\u9879\u76ee\u6536\u652f\u4e3a\u8d1f\uff0c\u9700\u6301\u7eed\u5438\u5f15\u5916\u8d44\u6216\u501f\u5916\u503a\u6765\u586b\u8865\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u538b\u4f4e\u91cc\u62c9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52a8\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u90e8\u7f72<\/h3>\n

\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u201d\uff08derivatives\uff1a\u4ef7\u503c\u6765\u81ea\u6c47\u7387\u7b49\u6807\u7684\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u5982\u671f\u6743\u3001\u671f\u8d27\uff09\u5e03\u5c40\u91cc\u62c9\u7ee7\u7eed\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u662f\u8f83\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u4e70\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\/\u91cc\u62c9\u201c\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\u201d\uff08call options\uff1a\u652f\u4ed8\u6743\u5229\u91d1\u540e\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\/\u5230\u671f\u65f6\u6309\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff09\u53ef\u5728\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u63a7\u4e0b\uff0c\u628a\u63e1\u91cc\u62c9\u5927\u5e45\u8d2c\u503c\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u201c\u6709\u9650\u98ce\u9669\u201d\uff08defined-risk\uff1a\u6700\u5927\u4e8f\u635f\u9501\u5b9a\uff09\u5728\u4e8e\u6700\u591a\u635f\u5931\u671f\u6743\u201c\u6743\u5229\u91d1\u201d\uff08premium\uff1a\u4e70\u671f\u6743\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u8d39\u7528\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u5143\/\u91cc\u62c9\u671f\u6743\u7684\u201c\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u201d\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u7531\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u63a8\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u7684\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u5927\u5c0f\uff09\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u573a\u7126\u8651\u52a0\u6df1\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6743\u5229\u91d1\u66f4\u8d35\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7a81\u7136\u3001\u5267\u70c8\u8d2c\u503c\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f7f\u6301\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u671f\u6743\u6210\u4e3a\u8f83\u7a33\u59a5\u7684\u5e03\u5c40\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 2023 \u5e74\u9009\u4e3e\u524d\u540e\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u6c47\u7387\u51fa\u73b0\u660e\u663e\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7efc\u5408\u4ee5\u4e0a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\/\u91cc\u62c9\u5e74\u5e95\u52a0\u901f\u903c\u8fd1 50.500 \u7684\u98ce\u9669\u660e\u663e\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u8003\u8651 3\u52306\u4e2a\u6708\u5230\u671f\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff08expiry\uff1a\u5408\u7ea6\u5230\u671f\u65f6\u95f4\uff09\u6765\u6355\u6349\u8fd9\u9879\u6f5c\u5728\u8d70\u52bf\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u73af\u5883\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u5feb\u901f\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u6216\u66f4\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u201c\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u8d2c\u503c\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

MUFG\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u51b2\u51fb\u6076\u5316\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5916\u90e8\u6536\u652f\uff0c\u51c0\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u63a2\u5386\u53f2\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u62a4\u76d8\u5f39\u836f\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u91cc\u62c9\u6216\u52a0\u901f\u8d2c\u503c\u751a\u81f3\u201c\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u8df3\u8d2c\u201d\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\/\u91cc\u62c9\u5e74\u5e95\u770b50.500\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47701\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}