{"id":47734,"date":"2026-05-27T09:19:49","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T09:19:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e6%ac%a7%e5%85%83-%e8%8b%b1%e9%95%91%e5%b0%8f%e5%b9%85%e8%b5%b0%e9%ab%98%ef%bc%8c%e6%ac%a7%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e9%b9%b0%e6%b4%be%e8%a1%a8%e6%80%81%e6%8f%90%e6%8c%af%e6%ac%a7%e5%85%83%ef%bc%8c\/"},"modified":"2026-05-27T09:19:49","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T09:19:49","slug":"%e6%ac%a7%e5%85%83-%e8%8b%b1%e9%95%91%e5%b0%8f%e5%b9%85%e8%b5%b0%e9%ab%98%ef%bc%8c%e6%ac%a7%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e9%b9%b0%e6%b4%be%e8%a1%a8%e6%80%81%e6%8f%90%e6%8c%af%e6%ac%a7%e5%85%83%ef%bc%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e6%ac%a7%e5%85%83-%e8%8b%b1%e9%95%91%e5%b0%8f%e5%b9%85%e8%b5%b0%e9%ab%98%ef%bc%8c%e6%ac%a7%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e9%b9%b0%e6%b4%be%e8%a1%a8%e6%80%81%e6%8f%90%e6%8c%af%e6%ac%a7%e5%85%83%ef%bc%8c\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6b27\u5143\/\u82f1\u9551\u5c0f\u5e45\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u9e70\u6d3e\u8868\u6001\u63d0\u632f\u6b27\u5143\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u8d70\u8f6f\u524a\u51cf\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u82f1\u592e\u884c\u52a0\u606f\u62bc\u6ce8"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u5b8c\u5168\u8ba1\u5165\uff08fully priced\uff1a\u4ef7\u683c\u5df2\u53cd\u6620\uff09ECB\u5b58\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\uff08deposit rate\uff1a\u94f6\u884c\u628a\u94b1\u5b58\u653e\u5728\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u5229\u7387\uff09\u57282%\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5c06\u52a0\u606f\u4e24\u6b21\uff1b\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u5e74\u5185\uff0c\u9690\u542b\uff08imply\uff1a\u4ece\u4ef7\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\uff09\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u63a5\u8fd150%\u3002\u76f8\u8f83\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u8def\u900f\u8c03\u67e5\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u8ba1\u53ea\u4f1a\u52a0\u606f\u4e24\u6b21\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u57282027\u5e74\u4e2d\u964d\u606f\u3002\u82f1\u56fd\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u8d70\u8f6f\u540e\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4e0b\u8c03\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\uff0c4\u6708\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u610f\u5916\u5347\u81f35.0%\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4e5f\u52a0\u91cd\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u9884\u671f\u56de\u843d\u3002Pantheon Macroeconomics\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u5bf92026\u5e74\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6bd4\u4e00\u5468\u524d\u5c11\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\uff1b\u82f1\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff08gilt yields\uff1a\u82f1\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\u5229\u7387\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u878d\u8d44\u6210\u672c\u6307\u6807\uff09\u5219\u5f55\u5f97\u81ea2023\u5e74\u672b\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5927\u5355\u5468\u8dcc\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u5316\u652f\u6491\u6b27\u5143\u4e0a\u884c<\/h3>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u660e\u663e\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u5316\uff08monetary policy divergence\uff1a\u4e24\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\u4e0d\u540c\uff09\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5e94\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u6b27\u5143\u76f8\u5bf9\u82f1\u9551\u8d70\u5f3a\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u6b63\u4e3a6\u6708\u52a0\u606f\u505a\u5e02\u573a\u94fa\u57ab\uff0c\u800c\u82f1\u4f26\u94f6\u884c\uff08BoE\uff09\u52a0\u606f\u9884\u671f\u6b63\u5728\u51cf\u5f31\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5dee\u8ddd\u652f\u6491\u6b27\u5143\/\u82f1\u9551\u4ece\u5f53\u524d\u7ea60.8650\u6c34\u5e73\u7ee7\u7eed\u8d70\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u7684\u9e70\u6d3e\u7acb\u573a\u76f4\u63a5\u56de\u5e94\u4e86\u901a\u80c0\u9ecf\u6027\uff08persistent inflation\uff1a\u901a\u80c0\u4e0d\u6613\u56de\u843d\uff09\u3002\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u521d\u503c\uff08flash estimates\uff1a\u63d0\u524d\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u6570\u636e\uff09\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\uff08core inflation\uff1a\u5254\u9664\u80fd\u6e90\u548c\u98df\u54c1\u7b49\u6ce2\u52a8\u8f83\u5927\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u4ecd\u987d\u56fa\u7ef4\u6301\u57282.9%\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u76ee\u524d\u5bf96\u6708\u8bae\u606f\u4f1a\u8bae\u52a0\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0825-basis-point\uff1a0.25\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff09\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e3a100%\u3002\u65bd\u7eb3\u8d1d\u5c14\u4e0e\u7ef4\u52d2\u9c81\u74e6\u7b49\u5b98\u5458\u7684\u660e\u786e\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e3a\u6b27\u5143\u63d0\u4f9b\u8f83\u5f3a\u652f\u6491\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e0a\u5347\u4e0b\u7684\u671f\u6743\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n

\u5728\u6b64\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u4e70\u5165\u6b27\u5143\/\u82f1\u95517\u6708\u5230\u671f\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08call options\uff1a\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e70\u65b9\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\/\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u6309\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5165\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff09\u3002\u8be5\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u5728\u9884\u671f\u76846\u6708\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u52a0\u606f\u540e\uff0c\u628a\u63e1\u6c47\u4ef7\u4e0a\u884c\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u76ee\u6807\u770b\u54110.8720\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u8be5\u6c34\u5e73\u4eca\u5e74\u8f83\u65e9\u65f6\u5019\u66fe\u662f\u5173\u952e\u963b\u529b\u4f4d\uff08resistance\uff1a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u884c\u65f6\u8f83\u96be\u7a81\u7834\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82e5\u5e0c\u671b\u66f4\u7701\u6210\u672c\uff08cost-effective\uff1a\u964d\u4f4e\u82b1\u8d39\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u91c7\u7528\u725b\u5e02\u770b\u6da8\u4ef7\u5dee\uff08bull call spreads\uff1a\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u8f83\u4f4e\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\u3001\u5356\u51fa\u8f83\u9ad8\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u671f\u6743\u8d39\uff09\u3002\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u4e70\u5165\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u63a5\u8fd1\u5f53\u524d0.8650\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5356\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\uff08strike price\uff1a\u671f\u6743\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4e70\u5356\u4ef7\u683c\uff09\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u4f8b\u59820.8750\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u51cf\u5c11\u521d\u59cb\u671f\u6743\u8d39\uff08premium\uff1a\u4e70\u671f\u6743\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u8d39\u7528\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u80fd\u660e\u786e\u98ce\u9669\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4fdd\u7559\u56e0\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u5316\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4e0a\u884c\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b27\u5143\/\u82f1\u9551\u671f\u6743\u7684\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u4ece\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u63a8\u7684\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u9884\u671f\uff09\u4e00\u76f4\u504f\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u5728\u592e\u884c\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e34\u8fd1\u65f6\u4f1a\u8d70\u9ad8\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53ef\u8d81\u671f\u6743\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u524d\uff0c\u5148\u5e03\u5c40\u505a\u591a\u6ce2\u52a8\uff08long volatility\uff1a\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u53d8\u5927\u3001\u5e38\u901a\u8fc7\u4e70\u5165\u671f\u6743\u5b9e\u73b0\uff09\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u82f1\u56fd\u4e0e\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8def\u5f84\u5206\u5316\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u4ea4\u6613\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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