{"id":47907,"date":"2026-05-29T03:02:55","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T03:02:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e6%96%b0%e8%a5%bf%e5%85%b05%e6%9c%88%e6%b6%88%e8%b4%b9%e8%80%85%e4%bf%a1%e5%bf%83%e5%9b%9e%e5%8d%87%ef%bc%8c%e6%8c%91%e6%88%98%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e9%a2%84%e6%9c%9f%e5%b9%b6%e6%94%af%e6%92%91%e7%ba%bd\/"},"modified":"2026-05-29T03:02:55","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T03:02:55","slug":"%e6%96%b0%e8%a5%bf%e5%85%b05%e6%9c%88%e6%b6%88%e8%b4%b9%e8%80%85%e4%bf%a1%e5%bf%83%e5%9b%9e%e5%8d%87%ef%bc%8c%e6%8c%91%e6%88%98%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e9%a2%84%e6%9c%9f%e5%b9%b6%e6%94%af%e6%92%91%e7%ba%bd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e6%96%b0%e8%a5%bf%e5%85%b05%e6%9c%88%e6%b6%88%e8%b4%b9%e8%80%85%e4%bf%a1%e5%bf%83%e5%9b%9e%e5%8d%87%ef%bc%8c%e6%8c%91%e6%88%98%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e9%a2%84%e6%9c%9f%e5%b9%b6%e6%94%af%e6%92%91%e7%ba%bd\/","title":{"rendered":"\u65b0\u897f\u51705\u6708\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u6311\u6218\u964d\u606f\u9884\u671f\u5e76\u652f\u6491\u7ebd\u5143"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u65b0\u897f\u5170ANZ\u2013Roy Morgan\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6570\u57285\u6708\u5347\u81f386.5\uff0c\u524d\u503c\u4e3a80.3\u3002\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u5347\u663e\u793a\u5bb6\u5ead\u60c5\u7eea\u6709\u6240\u8f6c\u7a33\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u4f4e\u4e8e100\u8fd9\u4e00\u5206\u754c\u7ebf\uff08\u4e00\u822c\u628a100\u4ee5\u4e0a\u89c6\u4e3a\u6574\u4f53\u504f\u4e50\u89c2\u3001100\u4ee5\u4e0b\u89c6\u4e3a\u6574\u4f53\u504f\u60b2\u89c2\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

5\u6708\u7684\u6539\u5584\u662f\u5728\u524d\u4e00\u671f\u504f\u5f31\u4e4b\u540e\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u6c11\u4f17\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u751f\u6d3b\u538b\u529b\u8f83\u4e4b\u524d\u7f13\u548c\u3002ANZ\u4e0eRoy Morgan\u6bcf\u6708\u53d1\u5e03\u8fd9\u9879\u8c03\u67e5\uff08\u4ee5\u6708\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u5feb\u901f\u53cd\u6620\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u6001\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u56de\u5347\u610f\u5473\u7740\u603b\u4f53\u6307\u6807\u51fa\u73b0\u53cd\u5f39\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5229\u7387\u524d\u666f\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u97e7\u6027<\/h3>\n

\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4ece80.3\u8df3\u5347\u81f386.5\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6311\u6218\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u201c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u964d\u606f\u201d\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u5148\u524d\u4f30\u8ba1\u66f4\u6709\u97e7\u6027\uff08\u97e7\u6027=\u5728\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\u4ecd\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301\u6216\u8f83\u5feb\u6062\u590d\uff09\u3002\u82e5\u6d88\u8d39\u4fdd\u6301\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8feb\u4f7f\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\uff08RBNZ\uff0c\u592e\u884c\uff09\u5ef6\u540e\u653e\u5bbd\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u6b64\u524d\u5df2\u628a\u201c\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u6b21\u5b8c\u6574\u768425\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u964d\u606f\u201d\u8ba1\u5165\u4ef7\u683c\u300225\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9=0.25\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u770b\u6cd5\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u901a\u80c0\u4ecd\u504f\u201c\u987d\u56fa\u201d\uff08sticky=\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\u57283.4%\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u8d70\u5f3a\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4eRBNZ\u4e0b\u8c03\u5b98\u65b9\u73b0\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08Official Cash Rate\uff0cOCR=\u592e\u884c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u3001\u4e5f\u662f\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\uff09\u81f35.50%\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5173\u6ce8\u5229\u7387\u4e92\u6362\uff08interest rate swaps=\u7528\u6765\u4ea4\u6362\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e0e\u6d6e\u52a8\u5229\u7387\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u3001\u5e38\u7528\u4e8e\u62bc\u6ce8\u6216\u5bf9\u51b2\u5229\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\uff0c\u5e03\u5c40\u201c\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\u3001\u7ef4\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\uff08higher for longer\uff09\u201d\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u81f3\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0e\u6c47\u5e02\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/h3>\n

\u60c5\u7eea\u6539\u5584\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u80a1\u5e02\u5229\u597d\u50ac\u5316\u5242\uff08catalyst=\u89e6\u53d1\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u6216\u884c\u60c5\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff09\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5229\u597d\u96f6\u552e\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u7c7b\u677f\u5757\u3002NZX 50\u6307\u6570\u8fd1\u671f\u8868\u73b0\u504f\u6162\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u7ec4\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u52a8\u6307\u6570\u4ece\u73b0\u6709\u6c34\u5e73\u53cd\u5f39\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4e70\u5165\u90e8\u5206\u8fd1\u671f\u5230\u671f\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08call options=\u4ee5\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\/\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u4e70\u5165\u6807\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff09\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u8868\u73b0\u843d\u540e\u7684\u53ef\u9009\u6d88\u8d39\u80a1\uff08consumer discretionary=\u975e\u5fc5\u9700\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u5982\u5bb6\u7535\u3001\u670d\u9970\u3001\u4f11\u95f2\u7b49\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u5143\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u652f\u6491\u3002\u66f4\u4e0d\u504f\u5411\u964d\u606f\u7684RBNZ\uff08less dovish\uff1b\u9e3d\u6d3e=dovish=\u503e\u5411\u964d\u606f\u4e0e\u5bbd\u677e\uff09\u4f1a\u8ba9\u7ebd\u5143\u66f4\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728NZD\/USD\u6c47\u7387\u6d4b\u8bd50.6150\u9644\u8fd1\u5173\u952e\u652f\u6491\u4f4d\u4e4b\u9645\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5bf9\u90a3\u4e9b\u592e\u884c\u66f4\u660e\u786e\u8d70\u5411\u964d\u606f\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u9002\u5ea6\u7684\u7ebd\u5143\u591a\u5934\u4ed3\u4f4d\uff08long positions=\u62bc\u6ce8\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u6301\u4ed3\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u65705\u6708\u53cd\u5f39\u81f386.5\uff08\u4ecd\u4f4e\u4e8e100\uff09\uff0c\u6697\u793a\u5bb6\u5ead\u538b\u529b\u7f13\u548c\u3001\u6d88\u8d39\u66f4\u97e7\uff1b\u901a\u80c0\u987d\u56fa\u6216\u4ee4RBNZ\u964d\u606f\u5ef6\u540e\uff0c\u5229\u597d\u96f6\u552e\u80a1\u4e0e\u7ebd\u5143\u53cd\u5f39\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47907","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47907","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47907"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47907\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47907"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47907"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47907"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}