{"id":48982,"date":"2026-06-12T19:09:23","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T19:09:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e5%9c%a8%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e9%a6%96%e7%a7%80%e6%9a%97%e7%a4%ba%e5%89%8d%e7%9e%bb%e6%8c%87%e5%bc%95%e5%87%8f%e5%b0%91%e3%80%81%e6%b3%a2%e5%8a%a8%e6%80%a7%e4%b8%8a%e5%8d%87\/"},"modified":"2026-06-12T19:09:23","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T19:09:23","slug":"%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e5%9c%a8%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e9%a6%96%e7%a7%80%e6%9a%97%e7%a4%ba%e5%89%8d%e7%9e%bb%e6%8c%87%e5%bc%95%e5%87%8f%e5%b0%91%e3%80%81%e6%b3%a2%e5%8a%a8%e6%80%a7%e4%b8%8a%e5%8d%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e5%9c%a8%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e9%a6%96%e7%a7%80%e6%9a%97%e7%a4%ba%e5%89%8d%e7%9e%bb%e6%8c%87%e5%bc%95%e5%87%8f%e5%b0%91%e3%80%81%e6%b3%a2%e5%8a%a8%e6%80%a7%e4%b8%8a%e5%8d%87\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6c83\u4ec0\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9996\u79c0\u6697\u793a\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u51cf\u5c11\u3001\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\u53ca\u7f8e\u5143\u504f\u5f3a\u503e\u5411"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u56fd\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\uff08National Bank of Canada\uff09\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\uff08Kevin Warsh\uff09\u5c06\u4e8e\u5468\u4e09\u4ee5FOMC\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8eab\u4efd\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae\uff0c\u5c06\u5398\u6e05\u6770\u7f57\u59c6\u00b7\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\uff08Jerome Powell\uff09\u7ee7\u4efb\u8005\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff1b\u6c9f\u901a\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0e\u201c\u53cd\u5e94\u51fd\u6570\u201d\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u8fd9\u6b21\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u66fe\u8868\u793a\u901a\u80c0\u4ecd\u7136\u8fc7\u9ad8\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8d28\u7591\u201c\u5254\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u540e\u7684PCE\u201d\uff08PCE ex-F&E\uff09\u662f\u5426\u662f\u8861\u91cf\u6f5c\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u4ee3\u7406\u6307\u6807\uff1b\u4ed6\u4e3b\u5f20\u91c7\u7528\u201c\u4fee\u526a\u201d\uff08trimmed\uff09\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u79f0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6307\u6807\u8fd1\u671f\u5448\u73b0\u201c\u76f8\u5f53\u6709\u5229\u201d\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u8be5\u884c\u7684\u89e3\u8bfb\u662f\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5f53\u524d\u7269\u4ef7\u6570\u636e\u4ecd\u4e0d\u652f\u6301\u653e\u677e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee5\u66f4\u4e3a\u5bbd\u677e\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u8868\u8ff0\u901a\u80c0\u524d\u666f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f7f\u547d\u91cd\u70b9\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u65b0\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u6279\u8bc4\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u8bae\u9898\u4e0a\u51fa\u73b0\u201c\u4f7f\u547d\u6f02\u79fb\u201d\uff08mission creep\uff09\uff1b\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4ed6\u5728\u786e\u8ba4\u542c\u8bc1\u4f1a\u4e0a\u91cd\u7533\u5bf9\u201c\u6700\u5927\u5c31\u4e1a\u201d\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u4f53\u8ba8\u8bba\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u201c\u7269\u4ef7\u7a33\u5b9a\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5c06\u75ab\u60c5\u540e\u653f\u7b56\u5931\u8bef\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff08forward guidance\uff09\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9891\u7e41\u53d1\u5e03\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u901a\u80c0\u4e0e\u5229\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u4f1a\u5c06\u5b98\u5458\u9501\u5b9a\u5728\u9759\u6001\u89c2\u70b9\u4e2d\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u5bf9\u65b0\u73af\u5883\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u901f\u5ea6\uff1b\u4ed6\u4e5f\u6697\u793a\u5b98\u5458\u8bb2\u8bdd\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u51b3\u7b56\u5e94\u5728\u201c\u4f1a\u8bae\u5ba4\u91cc\u201d\uff08in the room\uff09\u5b8c\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u5982\u4f55\u9002\u5e94\u65b0\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5f0f<\/h3>\n

\u968f\u7740\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\u5982\u4eca\u9886\u5bfc\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u9002\u5e94\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u73af\u5883\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u4e09\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u5df2\u786e\u8ba4\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6b63\u4ece\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u8f6c\u5411\u66f4\u5c11\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8fc7\u53bb\u4f9d\u9760\u4ea4\u6613\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u65e7\u5267\u672c\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u6570\u5468\u4e0e\u6570\u6708\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u5c06\u5448\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u201c\u6301\u6709\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u201d\u5982\u4eca\u662f\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u7684MOVE\u6307\u6570\u672c\u5468\u5df2\u98d9\u5347\u81f3115\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u524d\u4ecd\u572890\u591a\u7684\u4f4e\u4f4d\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u4e70\u5165\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\u53ca\u4e3b\u8981\u80a1\u7968\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u7684\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08straddles\uff09\u4e0e\u5bbd\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08strangles\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u53d1\u5e03\u524d\u540e\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u66f4\u5927\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e2d\u83b7\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u3001\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u6c9f\u901a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/h3>\n

\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f84\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u4e0a\u884c\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba15\u6708\u6574\u4f53PCE\u901a\u80c0\u6e29\u548c\u4e3a2.6%\uff0c\u4f46\u6c83\u4ec0\u91cd\u70b9\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u201c\u4fee\u526a\u5747\u503cPCE\u201d\uff08trimmed-mean PCE\uff09\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e3.1%\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u6709\u7a7a\u95f4\u7ef4\u6301\u9e70\u6d3e\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7SOFR\u671f\u8d27\u5e03\u5c40\u66f4\u8d8b\u5e73\u5766\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u77ed\u7aef\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u987d\u56fa\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u653f\u7b56\u503e\u5411\u4e5f\u5229\u597d\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\uff08DXY\uff09\u5df2\u7a81\u7834106.50\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u540e\u7eed\u4ecd\u6709\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8d70\u5f3a\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u964d\u606f\u9884\u671f\u5c06\u6bd4\u6b27\u6d32\u66f4\u5feb\u3001\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u5730\u88ab\u4e0b\u4fee\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u4e70\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u6b27\u5143\u4e0e\u65e5\u5706\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u671f\u6743\u770b\u6da8\uff08call options\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u518d\u80fd\u4f9d\u8d56\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u9891\u7e41\u8bb2\u8bdd\uff0c\u5728\u4e24\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e3a\u4ed3\u4f4d\u63d0\u4f9b\u6307\u5f15\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u5728\u4f1a\u8bae\u5ba4\u91cc\u201d\u5b9a\u8c03\u7684\u5168\u65b0\u6c9f\u901a\u98ce\u683c\uff0c\u4f7f\u5b98\u65b9FOMC\u58f0\u660e\u4e0e\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u8fd9\u8ba9\u4eba\u8054\u60f3\u52302008\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\uff1a\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u5fc5\u987b\u4ece\u63aa\u8f9e\u7684\u7ec6\u5fae\u53d8\u5316\u4e2d\u89e3\u8bfb\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4f9d\u9760\u660e\u786e\u6307\u5f15\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u6c83\u4ec0\u9996\u79c0FOMC\u6216\u91cd\u5199\u201c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5267\u672c\u201d\uff1a\u5f31\u5316\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u3001\u504f\u91cd\u7269\u4ef7\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u6539\u7528\u4fee\u526a\u5747\u503c\u770b\u901a\u80c0\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u9e70\u3001\u7f8e\u5143\u66f4\u5f3a\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8f6c\u5411\u4e70\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":47962,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48982","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48982"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48982\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47962"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}