FX option expiries for September 22 show no significant events, indicating a calm start to the week. The economic calendar appears light, with attention turning to the Federal Reserve’s actions from last week.

Market Focus

Traders are curious if economic data will match their expectations. The dollar is stable, with EUR/USD facing resistance at 1.1900. USD/JPY is approaching its 200-day moving average at 148.56, making it a pair to watch in the coming days. With few economic updates on the calendar, the focus remains on the impact of last week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed decided to keep rates steady while hinting at a “higher for longer” approach, which has strengthened the dollar. This puts pressure on future economic data to challenge the current market outlook. The Fed’s firm stance is backed by recent data, including the August 2025 Consumer Price Index at 3.4%, which is slightly above expectations and halts the disinflationary trend. The labor market also remains tight, with the last Non-Farm Payrolls report showing a gain of 210,000 jobs. These factors offer little reason for the Fed to consider rate cuts soon. For EUR/USD, the failure to break through the 1.1900 level is a significant technical signal. We see this as an opportunity to bet on further dollar strength, perhaps by selling call spreads with strike prices above that level. The European Central Bank’s cautious stance on future rate hikes creates a clear policy difference that could negatively impact this pair.

USD/JPY Analysis

We are closely watching USD/JPY as it nears its 200-day moving average of 148.56. In 2022 and 2023, the interest rate gap between the U.S. and the dovish Bank of Japan pushed the pair higher, despite intervention threats. We believe this trend is still in play, making call options a smart choice for capturing potential gains. In this data-driven environment, we can expect implied volatility to react to major economic reports, like upcoming inflation and jobs data. This offers opportunities to trade volatility, such as selling premium after data is released and the market digests the information. Low-cost option strategies that benefit from a rise in the dollar may work particularly well in the next few weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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