The US Dollar stayed near 97 during Thursday’s US session after Wall Street slipped on AI-related worries. The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded around 96.90. It was slightly stronger, but markets were waiting for the US January CPI report on Friday.
A Bloomberg report said Russia wants to return to US dollar settlement. It also mentioned possible cooperation in oil and natural gas, critical raw materials, and nuclear energy. Any shift would require the US to lift sanctions and restore Russia’s access to the US dollar system.
Us Labor Data In Focus
US initial jobless claims fell to 227K in the week ending February 7. This was higher than the 222K forecast, but lower than the prior week’s revised 232K, according to the US Department of Labor.
GBP/USD traded near 1.3620 after the jobless claims report. EUR/USD was around 1.1860 ahead of the Eurozone flash GDP (Q4) release due Friday.
USD/JPY traded near 152.80 and fell for a fourth straight day. The move followed Japan’s election result and renewed concerns about possible intervention. AUD/USD was around 0.7080 after hitting a three-year high earlier in the day. Gold traded near $4,913 after touching a three-day low.
Friday’s calendar includes RBNZ inflation expectations (Q1), Swiss January CPI, Eurozone flash GDP (Q4), and US January CPI. Weekend events include speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Saturday 14 and Sunday 15, along with Japan’s preliminary Q4 GDP on Sunday 15.
Perspective From Last Year
At this time last year, the US Dollar was also uncertain around the 97 level. Tech-sector nerves and geopolitical chatter were driving sentiment. The talk about Russia returning to the dollar system did not lead to anything concrete. Over time, attention shifted back to central bank policy. Now, with the Dollar Index holding above 104, many traders focus more on interest-rate differences than on short-lived headlines.
Last year, markets were waiting for the January 2025 CPI report to judge the Fed’s next steps. Since then, inflation stayed stubborn through 2025. The latest January 2026 data shows headline CPI still elevated at 2.9%, which has kept the Fed from clearly signaling rate cuts. This backdrop favors “higher for longer” positioning, including strategies that can benefit from steady or rising rates, such as buying puts on interest rate futures.
The AI fears in early 2025 triggered a market drop that later proved to be a strong long-term buying opportunity. New industry figures show continued momentum, with global AI investment in Q4 2025 alone topping $50 billion. That supports the case for long-dated call options on major tech indexes to capture potential upside.
In February 2025, there was intense speculation about Japanese intervention when USD/JPY was near 152.80. Authorities did step in later that year, but the pair is now testing 158. This suggests that policy divergence remains the bigger driver. It is a high-tension setup where options can be used to target either a sudden intervention-led drop or a continued grind higher.
Gold’s brief surge toward $4,900 per ounce last year marked a peak in market fear. Since then, it has settled into a $2,500–$2,600 range. Steady central bank buying has helped, with net global purchases rising by more than 800 tonnes in 2025. That support may make selling put options on gold attractive for income, while still allowing for protection if volatility returns.
Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
here to set up a live account on VT Markets now
