Technical Indicators Still Lean Bearish
The RSI has lifted slightly from oversold levels but remains below 50, which keeps selling pressure in place. As long as price stays below the former trend-line support area, gains beyond $76.45 (the 61.8% retracement) are described as limited. Support is seen near $75.90, then at $70.96, which matches the 78.6% retracement. A move above $80.30, the 50.0% retracement resistance, would be needed to reduce the bearish tone and suggest buyers are returning. The technical analysis was produced with help from an AI tool. We see a prevailing bearish sentiment for silver, as the recent breakdown below the short-term trend-line remains a significant signal. With the MACD and RSI indicators suggesting sustained selling pressure, any upward movement towards the $76.45 resistance might be an opportunity to initiate short positions. This could involve buying put options or selling call spreads to capitalize on potential further downside.Macro And Flow Drivers Reinforce Caution
This technical weakness is compounded by macroeconomic factors, with the February 2026 CPI data coming in slightly above expectations at 2.8%. Recent commentary from Federal Reserve officials hints at a continued restrictive stance, which is keeping the US dollar firm. A strong dollar typically creates headwinds for dollar-denominated commodities like silver, reinforcing our cautious outlook. We are also watching for signs of slowing industrial demand, particularly after the record solar panel installations we tracked throughout 2025. Data from the first quarter of 2026 shows a slight moderation in this growth, which could remove a key pillar of support for silver prices. Furthermore, a look at major silver ETFs shows net outflows of over 1.5 million ounces in the last month, a stark contrast to the heavy inflows seen during the rally last spring. Given this outlook, we believe traders could look at purchasing puts with a strike price below the $75.90 support level, targeting a move towards the $70.96 area in the coming weeks. A break and close above the $80.30 resistance would invalidate this bearish perspective and signal a need to reassess our positions. For now, the path of least resistance appears to be to the downside. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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