Nvidia (NVDA) peaked at $212.19 on 29 October 2025, then fell to $164.27 to complete a correction that began from the April 2025 low. The price then turned higher with stronger momentum.
From the 30 March 2026 low, the move is described as a five-wave rise. Wave 1 ended at $177.37, followed by wave 2 down to $170.23 on the 30-minute chart.
Wave 3 is underway and is broken into smaller waves. From $170.23, wave ((i)) reached $190, wave ((ii)) pulled back to $185.14, and wave ((iii)) rose to $200.4.
Further upward legs are expected to complete the five-wave advance from 30 March 2026, then a corrective phase is anticipated. The upside view is tied to $170.23 holding, with pullbacks expected to form either a three-swing or seven-swing pattern.
Given the strong impulsive structure forming from the March 30, 2026 low, we believe derivative traders should position for a move toward, and likely beyond, the October 2025 record high of $212.19. The current setup, identified as a powerful wave 3, suggests that near-term weakness should be treated as a buying opportunity. This environment is favorable for strategies like buying call options or selling cash-secured puts to capitalize on the expected upward trend.
This technical strength is reinforced by fundamental tailwinds, as recent industry data from February 2026 showed a 24% year-over-year increase in data center chip sales. Furthermore, with the next earnings report anticipated in late May, implied volatility may begin to rise, which presents opportunities for traders positioning for a positive surprise. The continued rollout of enterprise AI applications is a significant catalyst that supports the technical outlook.
For the coming weeks, we see value in selling out-of-the-money put credit spreads with strikes below the key pivot of $170.23 for May or June 2026 expiration. This strategy collects premium while defining risk, aligning perfectly with the view that this critical support level will hold. As long as NVDA remains above that pivot, the bullish thesis remains firmly intact.
We are viewing this price action through the lens of past cycles, particularly the powerful recovery that began in early 2023. That period demonstrated how a confirmed market bottom, followed by an impulsive five-wave advance, could lead to a sustained rally. The current structure mirrors that earlier setup, giving us confidence that this is more than just a short-term bounce.
