Silver (XAG/USD) rose on Friday after rebounding from near $74. It gained more than 2.50% and traded around $77.20 per troy ounce. The move followed a softer-than-expected US inflation report, but silver is still set to end the week lower. Silver is down 0.85% for the week after opening near $80.00. US stocks fell on Thursday, and that decline pulled silver lower because silver has recently moved in line with equities.

Key Technical Levels

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests sideways trading. Resistance sits near the 50-day SMA at $79.08. Support is at $64.41, where the 100-day SMA is located. If silver falls below $75.00, the next support is the 13 February low at $74.01. Below that, the next level is $70.00, ahead of the 100-day SMA. If silver climbs back above $80.00, resistance is at the 29 December high of $83.75. The next resistance is the 11 February high of $86.30. Looking back at this time last year, the market was optimistic after a soft inflation report. Silver rose on the news but still failed to retake the key $80.00 level. That failed breakout in February 2025 pointed to weakness that continued through the rest of the year. The main problem was inflation stayed higher than markets expected in 2025. CPI ended the year at 3.1%, well above the Federal Reserve’s target. That forced the Fed to keep rates higher for longer, which tends to weigh on non-yielding assets like silver. As a result, silver prices slowly declined and broke below the technical support levels highlighted in last year’s outlook.

Market Outlook And Positioning

Today, silver is trading near $68.50. That means last year’s 100-day moving average level at $64.41 is no longer far below—it is now key support to watch closely. Last year’s RSI signal of sideways trading eventually broke lower as macro pressures stayed in place. For traders, put options with strikes below $65 may help protect a portfolio if prices fall further. Industrial demand—especially from solar panels—rose by an estimated 12% in 2025, which provides a solid fundamental base for prices. This creates a push-and-pull: tight monetary conditions versus strong physical demand. Because of that, selling cash-secured puts or using bull put spreads around $64–$65 could be a practical way to collect premium while keeping risk defined. Overall, the market shows low conviction. Implied volatility in silver options is still below the highs seen in late 2025. That favors strategies that work in a range until there is a clear catalyst, such as a Fed shift or a major change in industrial demand expectations. Regaining $70.00—highlighted in last year’s analysis—would be the first sign that the downward pressure may be easing. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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