After the trap, attention shifts to the S&P 500’s NFP-led reversal: the rebound’s anatomy and after-hours forecast accuracy

    by VT Markets
    /
    Feb 13, 2026
    The text describes a bullish reversal in the S&P 500 after the non-farm payrolls release. It then describes a large trap, followed by a rebound that happened after the market close. It says the trap and rebound were covered in premium Telegram channels while they were happening. It reports that initial jobless claims were not a negative surprise. However, continuing claims and the four-week average came in above expectations. It adds that equities and gold moved in response to this labour data.

    Market Trap And Rebound Pattern

    It refers to a preview of trading and stock signals, including price levels meant to be used for the day’s E-mini S&P 500 (ES) session. It also says that Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst who has served clients since February 2020. We are seeing a pattern like the one that trapped traders in 2025 after a strong Non-Farm Payrolls report. The market looks bullish, but the economic data points to weakness. That makes it risky to chase a breakout. This kind of setup rewards patience, not aggressive bullish trades. The labour market is showing stress, similar to what happened then. Continuing jobless claims have been rising and recently reached 1.95 million, the highest level in more than a year. The four-week moving average is also climbing. While the headline January jobs number looked strong at 215,000, the weakness in ongoing employment is an important warning sign for the economy. For derivatives traders, this suggests higher volatility in the weeks ahead, with the VIX still above 17. That can make premium-selling strategies more appealing. For example, consider iron condors on the S&P 500 to benefit from range-bound trading, especially while the index struggles to break resistance near 5,600. It may also make sense to buy cheap, out-of-the-money puts as a hedge, in case the market suddenly drops when it reacts to the weaker data.

    Gold Divergence And Safety Demand

    Gold’s move is also important. It has been rising toward $2,150 an ounce even with a stronger dollar. This divergence can signal a flight to safety, with traders seeking protection against a possible economic slowdown. One way to take advantage of this trend is to sell put spreads on gold ETFs. This collects premium while keeping risk defined, based on the view that safety demand could support prices. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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