US index futures held onto yesterday’s rebound during London hours on 25 February 2026, but the tone was mixed. S&P 500 futures led, Dow futures stayed steady, and Nasdaq futures improved but still sat below a resistance band that has capped gains since 17 February. Dow futures (YM) traded at 49,290, above the central pivot (48,852) and POC (49,230). The upper gate was 49,208–49,428, with an upper range at 50,360. Levels noted were 49,124, 49,072, 49,030, 48,988, and 48,936. The lower gate was 48,496–48,276, with a lower range at 47,344. Delta was neutral.

Key Levels And Near Term Structure

S&P 500 futures (ES) traded at 6,912, above the aligned intraday and daily central pivot at 6,866.50 and above the POC at 6,905. The upper gate was 6,893–6,909. Upside references were 6,923, 6,936, 6,952, and 6,979.50. The lower gate sat at 6,842–6,827, with a lower range at 6,764.00. Delta was positive. Nasdaq futures (NQ/MNQ) traded at 25,076, above the central pivot (25,051) and POC (25,040), but below the upper gate at 25,134–25,186. Further levels were 25,228, 25,269, 25,321, and 25,405. The lower gate was 24,978–24,934, with a lower range at 24,744. Delta was positive. The current setup points to an uneven recovery, with clear opportunities and risks in the weeks ahead. The S&P 500 is showing strength by holding above the key 6,909 resistance area. The Nasdaq is still lagging and struggling below its main resistance near 25,186. This gap between the two is the key thing to watch. This split also fits the bigger macro picture. Last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation stuck at 3.4% year over year, higher than expected. Sticky inflation reduces the chance of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. That matters most for the rate-sensitive Nasdaq, which helps explain why tech is underperforming. A similar pattern appeared in Q3 2025. The Nasdaq lagged for several weeks on inflation worries, then later caught up. That history suggests today’s tech weakness can fade, but it likely needs a trigger. Until Nasdaq can break and hold above its 25,186 upper gate, expect more rotation and choppy price action.

Actionable Trade And Risk Framework

For derivatives traders, a relative-value approach may work over the next one to two weeks. One example is a pair trade: long S&P 500 futures (ES) and short Nasdaq futures (NQ). This targets continued S&P outperformance versus tech, not the overall market direction. Options traders can also use the clearer technical levels. In the S&P 500, call spreads aimed at the 6,979 upper range offer defined risk while keeping upside exposure. In the Nasdaq, puts or put spreads struck below the 25,051 pivot can hedge against another rejection from overhead resistance. The key signal is how Nasdaq trades around the 25,134–25,186 resistance zone during the New York session. A clean break and acceptance above that area would suggest the market can rally together. Another failure there would raise the risk that the S&P 500 rally also loses momentum. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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