EUR/USD rose to 1.1880 on Thursday, up from Wednesday’s low of 1.1833. The pair is still trading within its recent range. Early support for the US Dollar faded after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The delayed January NFP showed 130K new jobs, above the 70K forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Healthcare accounted for nearly two-thirds of January job growth. There was also a sharp downward revision to the 2025 figures. After the NFP release, markets scaled back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The implied odds of a March cut dropped to 5% from 20%. April fell to 20% from above 40%. June is priced at about 60%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders are now focused on US Initial Jobless Claims and Home Sales data. Attention is also on Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Later on Thursday, European Central Bank officials Philip Lane and Joachim Nagel are scheduled to speak. Initial Jobless Claims track first-time filings for unemployment insurance. Higher claims can pressure the US Dollar, while lower claims can support it. Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) measures monthly changes in housing activity. Stronger readings tend to support the Dollar, while weaker data can weigh on it. EUR/USD is still struggling to pick a clear direction. It is hovering around 1.1880 after the US jobs report. While the headline job number was strong, the details were less convincing. Job gains were heavily concentrated in one sector, and the 2025 revisions were sharply lower. This mixed picture helps explain why the Dollar’s initial strength did not last. The odds of a March Fed cut have fallen to just 5%, a big change from a few weeks ago. This repricing looks similar to late 2023, when strong economic data forced markets to quickly reduce aggressive easing bets. For now, June is the earliest date the market is meaningfully pricing for a cut, with Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair. This kind of uncertainty often favors range trading, and options can fit that setup. With the VIX near a moderate 15, selling EUR/USD strangles could work if the pair stays stuck in its range. Still, Friday’s CPI report is the key risk. It is the most likely catalyst for a breakout. The Euro side matters too. ECB officials like Lane and Nagel continue to signal a “steady for longer” stance. That helps support the Euro and limits downside, even when US data is firm. With both central banks leaning cautious, the lack of clear policy divergence is keeping EUR/USD tightly range-bound. Until CPI is out, today’s Initial Jobless Claims will be an important check on labor-market momentum. Claims have stayed below 220,000 for months. If that continues, it would support the Dollar. Existing Home Sales could also affect sentiment, since the housing market has been very sensitive to shifting rate expectations over the past year.

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