USD/CHF has been falling since the late-November 2025 peak near 0.8102. The daily chart shows a clear downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows. Price is still below the 50-day EMA (0.7873) and the 200-day EMA (0.8068). The pair hit 0.7605 in late January. It then bounced toward 0.7800 in early February, but turned lower again. The drop from around 0.7950 has now made that area a resistance zone. Support remains focused near 0.7600.

Key Short Term Price Action

On 10 February, USD/CHF dipped to 0.7629 and later closed near 0.7665. Price tested 0.7650 and failed to hold above it. This level has acted as a pivot since late January. The Stochastic Oscillator (14, 5, 5) is at 30.56/34.56. That is just above oversold, and there is still no clear bullish crossover. If price breaks below 0.7600, the next target is 0.7382. This comes from a measured move based on the broader decline that began from the 2022 highs. Key resistance levels include 0.7790 and the 50-day EMA near 0.7873. Swiss CPI data due on 13 February could lift volatility. The SNB is also watching the Franc closely, including the possibility of FX intervention to limit CHF strength. Last year, around February 2025, the market was strongly bearish as USD/CHF tested the 0.7600 support area. The downtrend was firm, and sellers quickly faded small rebounds. That setup pointed to more weakness in the months ahead.

Shift In Market Regime

That break below 0.7600 did occur. The pair later formed a major low near the 0.7382 target by July 2025. The move was driven by the Federal Reserve signaling a pause in tightening as US Core PCE inflation fell to 2.8% in Q2 2025. At the same time, the Swiss National Bank stayed hawkish to address stubbornly high domestic service prices. Over the last six months, USD/CHF has built a base and is trading near 0.7720. It is now sitting just above its 50-day moving average, which is starting to turn higher. Longer-term momentum has shifted from bearish to neutral, creating a different backdrop for traders. Dips below 0.7650 are now being absorbed, which contrasts with last year’s aggressive selling. For traders looking for a slow move back toward 0.7900, May 2026 call options with a 0.7800 strike may be appealing. Implied volatility is at multi-year lows, which makes longer-dated options relatively cheaper. This approach limits risk to the premium paid and offers upside if the US dollar strengthens. A more conservative idea for the next few weeks is to sell out-of-the-money put credit spreads. For example, selling a March 2026 0.7550 put and buying a 0.7450 put for protection can generate income from time decay. This trade works best if the mid-2025 low continues to act as a floor. The January 2026 US jobs report showed mild cooling. Non-farm payrolls rose by 165,000 versus expectations of 180,000. This keeps the chance of a mid-year Fed rate cut in play, which may limit any strong USD/CHF rally. Because of that, traders may watch the 0.7870 resistance area (near the 200-day moving average) as a possible profit-taking zone. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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