The Nifty 50 index is an important measure of India’s stock market, featuring 50 major companies listed on the National Stock Exchange. This video analyzes Nifty 50 index futures using technical analysis. At InvestingLive, we expect a potential bullish move in Nifty if specific technical conditions are met. This prediction is part of our strategy, with forexlive.com set to transition to this new brand by the end of the summer. The current hourly Nifty chart shows a well-defined blue channel, marked by several touches on both the upper and lower bounds. Typically, the fourth touchpoint in such patterns leads to a breakout. A valid price channel requires at least two touchpoints on each side. Trends often develop gradually before becoming clear, as shown by a secondary trend within the existing channel. Right now, a bullish flag pattern appears to be forming in Nifty, suggested by the regression channel. For a bullish scenario, Nifty needs to break upwards from this pattern. A retest near the double-support level of 25,400 to 25,350 would support a bullish outlook. If this retest succeeds, Nifty could rise to 25,700, a gain of about 1.3% or 328 points, with 26,000 as a possible target. From this analysis, we see a chart structure that often signals momentum. The regression channel within a broader price channel suggests consolidation rather than an immediate reversal. When these components align—especially after multiple bounces—it indicates that pressure is building, not easing. The mention of a fourth touchpoint is significant. In technical analysis, repeated interactions with a trend boundary show that traders trust its reliability. When the market approaches a trend line for the fourth time, especially in a tighter flag formation, it often signals growing confidence on one side of the market. Currently, it seems buyers are strengthening their grip. This behavior is usually supported by steady pullbacks. The potential retest around 25,350 aligns with previous support areas that have held firm. It’s not just a line; buyers historically entered at this level, and they’re likely watching it again. If this level holds when prices drop, the chances of moving higher increase—25,700 is a near-term target, with 26,000 further ahead. For those managing short-term positions, such as leveraged exposure or weekly expiries, it’s crucial to note the typical reaction after flag structures break. Once a clear break occurs, confirmed by volume or a swift move away from the previous support line, fast follow-through often happens in the next two to three sessions. That’s when prices often gain momentum, and hedging may become important for those with open positions. Sharma’s earlier identification of the lower support area is based on overlapping demand observed in prior trading sessions. When various indicators point to the same level—trend backtests, previous resistance turned support, and possibly moving averages—the significance of that level increases. If prices dip into this zone and quickly rebound, momentum funds often view it as a fresh entry point. Kumar’s technical insights suggest that despite tight ranges, the index is coiling rather than stalling. This coiling action, visible through a narrowing regression channel, indicates energy is building up. In previous years, similar structures within broader rising trends have marked points where futures rose to test higher valuations. We also need to monitor volume with each move. If prices break upwards from the flag without an increase in traded contracts, it could indicate a false signal towards stop orders above. On the other hand, confirmation through enlarged volume, ideally with increasing open interest, typically shows confidence from institutional traders rather than speculation with light volume. Additionally, recent historical volatility is lower than the three-month average, suggesting that any upcoming moves could be sharper than usual. This makes selecting weekly strikes particularly sensitive. We are entering a phase where selling tight-range straddles becomes less appealing, and a correctly timed directional bias may yield better results than gamma-neutral strategies. Aggarwal’s comments imply that these price structures don’t form overnight, but once they resolve, they usually support follow-through. This is especially true during quiet global macro trends, where liquidity allows technical signals to drive more intraday action. So, from our current position: if the retest behaves as expected, and if volume picks up during the lift-off, moving toward the mentioned resistance tier is not only possible but likely. Positions taken before this confirmation carry higher risk and emotion, but those established afterward offer clearer, more methodical trading opportunities with defined risks.

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