The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to stay between 0.5760 and 0.5790. Current analysis shows that the chances of the NZD rising above 0.5800 are decreasing. In the last 24 hours, the NZD traded between 0.5769 and 0.5795, ending with a small change of +0.05%. There isn’t much momentum in either direction, suggesting continued consolidation within the 0.5760 to 0.5790 range. Looking at the next 1-3 weeks, we expected the NZD to rise since late last month, with important levels at 0.5800 and 0.5835. Even though it reached a high of 0.5795, the lack of upward momentum and overbought conditions make it less likely to go beyond 0.5800. If it drops below 0.5750, it may signal that the NZD’s upward trend has ended. The Insights Team at FXStreet has gathered these observations from commercial notes and insights from various analysts. We believe the recent rise in NZD/USD is losing steam, particularly near the 0.5800 level. Last week’s comments from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand were cautious, especially after the GDP growth for the third quarter of 2025 came in lower than expected at 0.2%. This indicates the New Zealand economy may be slowing down quicker than anticipated. In contrast, the US economy shows strength, with last Friday’s job report revealing over 210,000 new jobs created in November. All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, where this strong data could lead to a more aggressive approach, boosting the US dollar. The differences between the two central banks’ outlooks are becoming clearer. For those expecting a downturn, buying put options with a strike price at or just below the 0.5750 support level could be wise. If this level is breached, it would likely confirm the end of the recent uptrend and trigger a quicker decline. This method allows you to position for potential weakness with defined risk. On the other hand, if we think the pair will stay range-bound, selling options could work well. An iron condor strategy, with short strikes outside the 0.5760 to 0.5790 range, would benefit from low volatility and time decay. This aligns with our view that the pair will consolidate until it makes its next major move. We’ve seen similar patterns before, especially in the fourth quarter of 2023 when the pair struggled to break through key resistance levels. At that time, a combination of slowing New Zealand economic momentum and strong US data led to a significant downturn. The current overbought conditions remind us of that period.

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