Bitcoin surged after the news that Trump will sign an executive order allowing cryptocurrencies in retirement plans. This order will let 401(k) plans include private equity, real estate, cryptocurrencies, and other alternative investments. It will also instruct the Department of Labor to ease current rules that prevent plan administrators from offering these products. As a result, demand for digital assets increased, pushing Bitcoin up by nearly 1%. Stay informed with market-moving news that creates trading and investment chances. The decision to include crypto in retirement plans is important. We might see a new wave of interest from the U.S. 401(k) market, which, according to government data from early 2025, holds over $7.5 trillion in assets. This could lead to a long-term flow of money into digital assets, far exceeding the initial excitement. In light of this news, we expect implied volatility to rise in the next few weeks as the market assesses the full effects. Traders might want to consider buying long-term call options to benefit from potential price increases while limiting their risk. Recent market data shows that crypto volatility indexes had been falling through July 2025, indicating the market wasn’t ready for this kind of news. However, the immediate reaction, with Bitcoin only rising around 1%, seems lackluster given the significance of the announcement. This hints that the market may doubt how quickly plan administrators will implement these changes. We saw a similar pattern when spot Bitcoin ETF approvals were announced in January 2024, where prices dipped right after the announcement but rose when actual inflow data emerged. For futures traders, it’s crucial to monitor the spread between spot prices and futures prices. A widening contango, where future prices exceed spot prices, would indicate strong positive expectations in the coming months. This could make strategies like calendar spreads—buying a longer-term future while selling a shorter-term one—appealing. Looking ahead, we need to keep an eye on the guidance from the Department of Labor. The key will be announcements from major 401(k) providers about whether and when they will offer these products. Real data on fund movements will ultimately confirm this trend, but that information may take months to obtain.

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