Aptos (APTUSD) is a Layer 1 blockchain known for its speed and scalability, but it’s facing some technical difficulties. Recently, it broke through the midline support of a descending channel that it had followed for several months. This channel, which formed in February 2024, had its rallies and declines guided by blue trendlines. The midline acted like a center point but has now been breached. The current price is $2.1412, down by 5.49% and below the midline. This change suggests a movement towards the lower boundary of the channel, which is between $1.00 and $1.50. When the midline is broken, it often leads to movement towards the channel’s far end, similar to how a pendulum swings. This setup indicates a focus on the lower boundary. Selling pressure has increased, pushing the price below a previously strong support level. If the price reaches the lower boundary, it may attract buyers and a bounce might occur. However, traders should consider short positions as it heads down. If the price recovers and stays above the midline, the breakdown might turn out to be a false signal. Watch for volume changes near the lower trendline; significant selling or low volume could suggest different outcomes. These patterns help predict future price actions. In late November 2025, Aptos is trading near $2.55. After breaking the key midline of its long-term descending channel in mid-2024, we saw a setup forming that indicated a shift in momentum, affecting the current trading situation. As expected, the price eventually tested the lower boundary and even dropped to $1.22 in January 2025. This confirmed that the technical structure was a reliable indicator of the weakness we experienced over the past year. Since that low, every rally has faced selling pressure, keeping the downward trend strong. Selling pressure seems to be growing again, influenced by more than just chart patterns. Recent data reveals that daily active addresses on the network have dropped by almost 30% since peaking in the third quarter, indicating decreasing interest from users, which often preview further price drops. Moreover, the network’s Total Value Locked (TVL) is struggling to recover, now just over $400 million, a considerable decline from early 2024 highs. The situation worsened when news broke in October 2025 about a major gaming project switching to a competing blockchain. These factors confirm that sellers still dominate for fundamental reasons. For derivative traders, this reinforces the strategy of aiming for the lower boundary again, especially since perpetual futures funding rates have been negative for three weeks. The most likely outcome points to retesting the $1.20-$1.50 support zone. This bearish outlook would only change if the price convincingly rises to $3.00. However, the lower boundary has historically offered strong support, so we should be ready for a possible bounce. As the price nears the $1.20-$1.50 range, watch for indications of capitulation selling on heavy volume or reversal patterns like bullish divergence. A solid response in that area could present a high-reward opportunity for those waiting for sellers to tire.

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