Argentina’s month-on-month trade balance was $1,987m in January. This was above the forecast of $900m.
January’s trade surplus was more than double expectations, which is a clear positive. It suggests the economic adjustments that started in earnest during 2025 are working: exports are rising and imports are falling. For us, this reduces pressure on the Argentine Peso (ARS) and helps the country rebuild foreign currency reserves.
This strong trade data, together with inflation cooling from peaks above 25% in late 2025 to 13.2% last month, supports the case for continued stabilization. The government is showing it can improve both the fiscal and external position. That increases confidence that the current policy path is sustainable.
Given this, we should consider trades that benefit from a steadier or slowly stronger Peso. With the Central Bank benchmark rate still near 100%, it is expensive to be short ARS. This trade surprise also lowers the risk of a sudden devaluation. One approach is to sell out-of-the-money USD/ARS call options to collect premium, since a sharp USD/ARS spike looks less likely in the near term.
For equities, this kind of macro stability is a meaningful tailwind for Argentine stocks, which rallied strongly through 2025. We could look at call spreads on US-listed ETFs such as ARGT to target further upside as investor sentiment improves on firmer data. With implied volatility likely lower after the surprise, long option strategies may be cheaper to enter now.
here to set up a live account on VT Markets now
