Gold prices have risen to nearly $4,615, getting close to record highs in the early hours of Thursday in Asia. This increase comes as more people seek safe investments due to global political and economic uncertainties.

Impact Of US Initial Jobless Claims

The spotlight is on the upcoming US Initial Jobless Claims report. Tensions are high in Iran following comments from US President Trump regarding protest crackdowns, prompting US military movements and threats from Iran. Worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve are also affecting the gold market. These concerns grew when Fed Chair Powell received subpoenas related to project cost overruns. With the US unemployment rate recently dropping to 4.4%, expectations of stable US interest rates may influence gold prices. Gold is often viewed as a safe haven during tough times and is used as a hedge against inflation and currency drops. In 2022, central banks bought a total of 1,136 tonnes of gold, with significant purchases from China, India, and Turkey. Typically, gold’s price moves in the opposite direction of the US Dollar and US Treasuries. When the Dollar weakens, gold prices tend to rise; conversely, a strong Dollar can lead to a decrease in gold prices. Geopolitical tensions and fears of recession often drive demand for gold.

Short-Term Catalysts For Gold Prices

Gold is currently trading close to record highs of around $4,615, largely due to rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. This desire for safety is the main factor pushing prices up, but any sign of de-escalation could quickly change this trend. The market is balancing fears with strong economic data from late 2025. The US unemployment rate at 4.4% supports the Federal Reserve’s stance to maintain higher interest rates, which usually pressures gold prices. However, a recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 3.1% year-over-year suggests higher inflation, historically increasing demand for gold. The ongoing tension between an aggressive Fed and geopolitical risk hints at higher market volatility in the upcoming weeks. Options strategies that benefit from significant price swings, like long straddles, could be beneficial for traders. Consider contracts that expire in 30 to 60 days to take advantage of possible price shifts. For those optimistic but wary of a sharp downturn, bull call spreads could be a smart approach. This strategy allows for potential gains while limiting risks of sudden losses. It’s a cautious way to maintain a position without facing full exposure to market reversals. Support for gold remains strong, as central banks significantly boosted their buying in late 2025. This trend mirrors 2022 when central banks added a record 1,136 tonnes to their gold reserves. This institutional demand establishes a solid price floor and makes aggressive short selling risky. The performance of the US Dollar will be crucial for gold’s next move. We’re monitoring the DXY index, which has been around the 103.50 level and facing resistance. A significant increase in the Dollar, possibly due to strong US economic reports, would likely signal a correction in gold prices. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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