Today’s economic calendar in Asia features two important events: the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision and the release of PMIs from China. The official PMIs from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will be released today, while the Caixin/S&P PMIs will follow in the coming days.

Differences Between NBS and Caixin PMIs

The NBS and Caixin/S&P Global PMIs are different in several ways. The NBS PMI is produced by a government agency and focuses on large, state-owned enterprises across different industries. In contrast, the Caixin PMI comes from the private sector and targets small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are more exposed to market conditions. There are also differences in sample sizes: the NBS surveys around 3,000 firms, while Caixin surveys only 500. The NBS PMIs are released monthly at the end of each month and cover both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. The Caixin PMIs are reported early the following month and only include manufacturing and services data. The NBS PMI tends to reflect government-influenced economic stability, whereas the Caixin PMI reacts more to market changes. Both indices have their importance: the NBS gives a broad overview of China’s economy, while Caixin highlights the more vibrant private sector. Later today, the Bank of Japan will release a statement and an updated outlook report. Governor Ueda’s press conference will take place at 0630 GMT. The Bank of Japan’s timing can vary, so the report may not be released at a specific time. Tomorrow’s meeting of the Bank of Japan and the release of China’s PMIs are key events to watch. These figures could influence market direction and volatility in the coming weeks. Traders in derivatives should be prepared for potential market movements based on these outcomes.

Trading Strategies and Market Implications

We’ve noticed a consistent split in China’s data over the past year, and tomorrow’s figures are likely to continue this trend. For instance, in June 2025, the official NBS PMI was a modest 50.2, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI signaled stronger activity at 51.4. This difference between state-led sectors and private enterprises presents unique trading opportunities. With this divergence, consider using options strategies on Chinese equity ETFs to benefit from rising volatility in either direction. If the official PMI falls short, it may negatively impact commodity prices like copper, suggesting a cautious approach or put options on mining stocks. However, a strong result from Caixin could lift sentiment for certain tech and export-focused stocks. Regarding the Bank of Japan, the primary focus should be on future policy signals rather than just the decision on rates tomorrow. Recall that in March 2024, the Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates, significantly affecting the yen’s value. Since then, their approach has been very gradual. Japan’s core inflation has stubbornly stayed above the 2% target, recently reaching 2.5% in June 2025, putting pressure on the central bank to take action. The yen has also remained weak, hovering near 150 against the dollar for much of the past year, which impacts the economy. A hawkish tone from Governor Ueda could lead to a major shift in the market. Traders should consider positioning for a stronger yen in the upcoming weeks, possibly by using JPY call options or by shorting USD/JPY futures. Implied volatility on yen currency pairs is likely to increase around and after Governor Ueda’s press conference, so being prepared for this volatility is essential. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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