Assumption Day results in a quieter market as many European countries celebrate the holiday.
by VT Markets
/
Aug 15, 2025
Assumption Day is a public holiday in several European countries such as France, Spain, Italy, and parts of Germany. It aligns with Ferragosto in Italy, creating a relaxed market atmosphere as many people take time off.
The Milan exchange is closed today, while other exchanges remain open. However, trading is expected to be quiet due to holiday festivities.
Low Trading Volumes
Because of the holiday, we’re seeing low trading volumes on major exchanges. Historical patterns from August 2023 and 2024 show that average daily volumes can drop by up to 20% during this time. For those trading derivatives, this means wider bid-ask spreads and a higher risk of price gaps due to low activity.
With the holiday mood likely continuing into next week, we recommend being cautious about opening large positions. The potential for sharp and unpredictable price swings suggests it’s wise to widen stop-losses on any current trades to protect against minor news fluctuations. This environment is not suitable for making aggressive, short-term bets on futures or options.
We see this quiet period in late August as a chance to prepare for increased volatility in September. Historically, volatility, as measured by the VSTOXX index, tends to reach its lowest point during these calm summer weeks before rising as institutional traders return. For instance, the VSTOXX hit its yearly lows in the summers of the early 2020s before an eventful autumn.
Market Strategy for September
This brings us to consider buying longer-dated options while implied volatility is low. Acquiring October contracts on key indices like the DAX or CAC 40 lets us position ourselves for a major market move once this quiet period concludes. The currently lower premiums indicate the market’s calm, providing an advantageous entry point for a potential spike in September.
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by VT Markets
Aug 15, 2025
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