US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said the United States would not set a time frame for the Iran operation at a Pentagon press conference on Monday. He said Iran has long-range strike capabilities and warned these could hit a tactical operations centre and cause US casualties.
He said the operation would not happen overnight and described it as a large battle space. He said it would take time to carry out battle damage assessment.
He said Iranian weapons had hit a tactical operations centre, causing US casualties. He also said there would be no US boots on the ground in Iran.
Hegseth said the United States is not ruling out any options in the war in Iran and said the aim is to win. He said President Donald Trump has latitude to decide what time frame the operation could have.
He said the United States would stand shoulder to shoulder with allies.
The indefinite timeline for the Iran operation points to a sustained period of market uncertainty. We should be prepared for higher volatility across asset classes for weeks, not days. The VIX, which tracks volatility, has already surged 35% in the last two weeks of February 2026, and we expect it to test the 30-35 level.
Energy markets will be the most directly affected due to risks in the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged conflict, even without boots on the ground, threatens global supply. We saw Brent crude spike over $120 a barrel during the initial Red Sea disruptions in 2025, and this situation is far more severe; Brent is already trading at $112 as of this morning.
The nature of the conflict favors specific sectors while hurting the broader market. The mention of long-range strikes and battle damage assessment means heavy use of advanced munitions and surveillance technology. Defense contractor stocks, particularly those in missile and drone systems, should be considered for long positions, while put options on broad market ETFs like SPY offer a hedge against overall economic drag.
A flight to safety seems inevitable as the risk of miscalculation remains high. Gold has already responded, breaking the $2,350 per ounce level last week for the first time in months. The confirmation of US casualties will likely accelerate this trend, making gold call options and US dollar futures attractive safe-haven plays.
The “big battle space” concept suggests the conflict could impact regional allies and shipping. The cost of insuring oil tankers operating in the Persian Gulf has reportedly tripled since January 2026. This implies we should look at shorting maritime transport stocks with heavy exposure to the region, as their operational costs will become unsustainable.
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