The latest report from the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker shows a growth rate of 3.8%, the same as on June 5. This update follows recent data from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The nowcast for second-quarter growth in real personal consumption expenditures decreased from 2.6% to 2.5%. However, there was a small improvement in real gross private domestic investment growth, which went from -2.2% to -1.9%. The next GDP tracker update is set for June 17. In simple terms, this means that expectations for US economic growth have remained stable, but some details are shifting. Consumption, or how much households are spending, has been slightly lowered. This indicates that households may be cutting back a bit, possibly due to financial pressure or seasonal changes. On the other hand, investment—how much businesses and individuals are spending on physical items like equipment, properties, or inventories—has shown a slight improvement, although it is still in decline. Overall, these changes have kept the main growth forecast steady. While there’s no big shift, the adjustments in these components can help us understand potential movements in markets sensitive to interest rates. We’re looking forward to the June 17 update because any new data—especially on retail sales, housing starts, or manufacturing orders—could change these components again. Changes in this tracker directly influence rate expectations. When personal consumption softens, it typically indicates less pressure on inflation. For those monitoring fluctuations in short-maturity rates or delta-hedging based on macro signals, this slight decrease in consumption growth suggests reduced demand-side inflation pressure. This could affect expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next moves. It’s worth noting that investment is still negative, even if slightly better. While this change is helpful, it doesn’t signal renewed optimism. The rebuilding of inventories is still limited, and equipment orders aren’t increasing fast enough to predict any growth momentum. If we were managing risks tied to growth sentiment, we would remain cautious without taking action yet. We might see more fluctuations in rates futures and short volatility strategies as the next data releases approach. When new data on prices and employment comes out, we’ll look at skew levels and expiration assumptions for positions linked to policy scenarios. For now, these revisions may cool some recent aggressive predictions, but not enough to change what has been priced in over the last two weeks. Watching spreads and options volume ahead of the GDP update will help us better understand expectation trends. For now, with the forecast unchanged but driven by different factors, it’s a reminder that momentum isn’t equally spread out. We focus on the differences, not just the headlines.

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