This week, gold’s upward momentum has slowed as traders wait for the US CPI data. A weak Non-Farm Payroll report led to lower interest rate expectations, allowing gold to rise as real yields fell. The upcoming CPI data might impact future rate cuts, with lower numbers supporting dovish bets and possibly indicating a third cut by the year-end. On the flip side, higher CPI numbers could lead to a hawkish shift, affecting gold’s value. In a broader view, gold is likely to maintain an upward trend as real yields decrease alongside the Federal Reserve easing. However, any hawkish changes in interest rate expectations may cause short-term corrections. On the daily chart, gold is nearing a resistance level of around 3,438 after rebounding near the 3,245 support level. Sellers could enter at this resistance, while buyers hope for a breakout to reach a new all-time high.

Gold Price Charts

The 4-hour chart shows that bullish momentum is fading without clear trading levels. The 1-hour chart reveals a slight upward trendline that supports the bullish momentum. Buyers will likely use this trendline to aim for resistance, while sellers will target a break below it to secure a pullback to the 3,350 level. Gold’s recent rise has started to lose steam as we shift focus to next week’s important US CPI inflation data. The rally began after last week’s weak Non-Farm Payrolls report, which indicated that the US economy added only 110,000 jobs in July, far below expectations. This disappointing job report increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon. More Fed officials have begun to indicate they are open to rate cuts since that report. Market pricing now shows a 75% chance of a rate cut at the September Fed meeting, up from about 40% before the jobs data. A weak inflation report next week could solidify that September cut. If the CPI data comes in lower than expected, markets will likely reinforce their bets on lower rates, which would be good for gold. However, if inflation rates are higher than anticipated, it could lead to a quick shift, negatively impacting gold in the short term. This scenario would likely keep prices within a recent range.

Market Insights

In the broader context, gold’s overall trend should remain upward. The Fed is expected to continue its easing cycle through the end of 2025, which should keep real yields under pressure. However, any unexpected hawkish news could lead to temporary pullbacks. In the daily chart, we see gold is inching toward a resistance level around $3,438. This level is just above the previous all-time high reached in May 2025, making it an important threshold. Sellers are likely to monitor this area to enter new positions, while buyers will look for a clear breakout. In the very short term, upward momentum appears weak, as if it’s climbing with inertia. A minor upward trendline is currently supporting the price on the one-hour chart. If that trendline breaks, sellers may aim for a quick drop back toward the $3,350 level. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now