The AUD/USD pair is likely to hit the 0.7094 mark, which is its highest level since February 2023. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 79, indicating that the pair may be overbought, which could limit its upward movement. The main support is around 0.6931, near the lower part of the ascending channel and the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). After three days of gains, the AUD/USD is trading around 0.7000 early Friday in Europe. The pair is following an upward trend, suggesting a positive outlook. It remains above both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs, supporting its upward momentum.

Monitoring The RSI Indicator

The current RSI is 76.86, indicating overbought conditions. This could lead to a pause or slight pullback, but the positive momentum remains. If gains continue, the pair could approach the upper channel boundary near 0.7140. If the pair decreases, the main support is near the nine-day EMA at 0.6931. If this level is broken, it could lead to a bearish outlook, potentially dropping to the 50-day EMA around 0.6728. Today’s currency data shows that the Australian Dollar has weakened against the US Dollar. The heat map displays percentage changes of major currencies, with the base currency listed in the left column and the quote currency in the top row. At this time in January 2025, the AUD/USD showed signs of being overbought with an RSI near 79 while trading around 0.7000. This overstretched momentum led to consolidation before a significant move. Today, on January 30, 2026, we observe a similar pattern at higher price levels.

Observing Economic Indicators

The Aussie dollar is currently trading near 0.7250. It has been supported by better-than-expected retail sales data from Australia, which revealed a 1.2% increase for December 2025. This strong economic data has kept the Reserve Bank of Australia watchful, contrasting with the more neutral stance of the US Federal Reserve. This fundamental difference has been the key driver of the pair’s strength over the past year. Similar to early 2025, the 14-day RSI is elevated at 74, suggesting the rally may be excessive. While momentum is positive, this reading hints that the pace of gains might slow down, possibly leading to a pullback. For derivative traders, this signals the need to be cautious when chasing the uptrend. Given the risk of a short-term reversal, buying AUD/USD put options with a strike price around 0.7150 could be a smart hedge for the next few weeks. This strategy allows participation in potential downside while limiting risk to the premium paid. Alternatively, selling call spreads above the recent high of 0.7300 could generate income if the pair trades sideways or declines. The key support level at 0.6931 from January 2025 is now replaced by a new critical zone around 0.7180, aligned with the 20-day moving average. A strong break below this support could trigger a larger correction, making it crucial for trade strategies. The old resistance at 0.7094 has become minor support. Unlike last year, when the AUD was weak against the USD on this day, the AUD shows broad strength now, especially against the Japanese Yen. The AUD/JPY pair has been climbing steadily, as carry trades remain popular with Japan’s interest rates near zero. This suggests that any pullback in AUD/USD might be smaller than in other pairs, as demand for the Aussie dollar remains strong. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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