The AUDUSD currency pair is testing its 100-day moving average, an important level that could impact future trends. Right now, sellers are in control as the price slides down to this key point, driven by a strong US dollar. Yesterday, the AUDUSD saw a sharp drop, hitting the 100-day moving average at 0.64259 due to gains in the USD. This level has consistently provided support since mid-April. Although the pair tried to bounce back, sellers regained control today, pushing the price down towards the 100-day moving average again.

Price Action Overview

The current price is 0.64317, just above the important 100-day moving average. Staying above this level might lead to a significant rebound. However, if it drops below, we could see more downward momentum. Key targets below the 100-day moving average include 0.6407, 0.63927, 0.63719, and 0.63546. These levels, along with the 200-day moving average and the 38.2% retracement, are vital for sellers looking to strengthen their position. A drop below these points would likely weaken the bullish sentiment we’ve seen since April, enhancing sellers’ control. The Aussie dollar is testing its 100-day moving average at 0.64259, marking a crucial decision point. A sustained break below this level would indicate strengthening bearish momentum. Traders in derivatives should prepare for increased downside risk in the upcoming weeks. This pressure on the AUDUSD is backed by recent fundamental factors. The US CPI data for June 2025 unexpectedly rose to 3.2%, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve will maintain its tough stance. This ongoing dollar strength suggests that a technical breakdown might lead to significant follow-through.

Economic Impact Analysis

On the Australian front, recent data has not been favorable. The unemployment rate has climbed to 4.3%, and key commodity prices like iron ore have fallen below $100 per tonne. This mix of a strong US dollar and a weakening Australian economic outlook makes a strong case for sellers. For traders, buying put options to bet on a decline could be a smart move. If the price moves below the 100-day moving average, it should be seen as a signal to take action. The first key level to watch would be the 0.6407 swing point, followed by the crucial 200-day moving average around 0.63927. These levels could attract profit-taking or offer a temporary pause in selling pressure. We’ve seen similar price actions in the past. In the latter half of 2023, a break of key moving averages, influenced by strong US economic performance, led to a prolonged decline in the pair. This historical trend suggests that we need to take the current technical setup seriously. The uncertainty around this turning point is likely to raise implied volatility, making options pricing more appealing. Traders might consider strategies like bear put spreads, which limit risk while positioning for a drop toward the 0.63546 retracement level. The key is to monitor for a convincing break below 0.64259 to confirm bearish positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now