The Australian Dollar has strengthened due to better job market data. In October, Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, which was an improvement over predictions. In the US, President Trump ended a 43-day government shutdown that had impacted financial markets. For the second consecutive day, the AUD increased against the USD, supported by positive employment statistics. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, employment rose by 42.2K, surpassing market expectations. Full-Time Employment grew by 55.3K, while Part-Time Employment decreased by 13.1K. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook continues to attract attention, with ongoing discussions about possible monetary restrictions.

US Dollar Index Stability

Following the signing of the government funding bill, the US Dollar Index remained stable. Strong comments from Federal Reserve officials changed expectations for interest rate cuts. The CME FedWatch Tool now indicates nearly a 60% chance of a rate cut in December. Additionally, the Challenger report noted job cuts rose to 153,074 in October. A temporary lift on an export ban by China may also affect the AUD due to trading relationships. The AUD/USD currently sits near 0.6560, showing solid short-term momentum. If it breaks through current resistance levels, it could rise towards 0.6630. Support levels are at the 50-day EMA of 0.6537 and 0.6531 for the nine-day EMA. As of November 13, 2025, market dynamics reveal a notable divergence with opportunities. The Australian dollar appears fundamentally strong, boosted by a strong jobs report for October 2025 showing unemployment at 4.3%. This economic stability, along with a Reserve Bank of Australia signaling restrictive policies, indicates a solid foundation for the Aussie dollar. On the other hand, the US dollar faces uncertainty despite the end of the government shutdown. While Fed officials maintain a tough stance on inflation, job data tells a different story. The Challenger report shows a dramatic increase in job cuts, rising to over 153,000 in October 2025, compared to just 55,597 cuts in October 2024. This job market weakness contradicts the Fed’s hawkish tone, creating tension over the US dollar’s future.

Derivative Trading Strategies

For derivative traders, this situation suggests exploring future volatility. The mix of strong Australian data and a potentially weakening US economy makes a notable shift in the AUD/USD pair likely in the near future. A long straddle strategy, involving buying both a call and a put option at the same strike price and expiration, could be an effective way to profit from a breakout in either direction from the current trading range. It’s also wise to consider strategies that take advantage of the defined technical range between about 0.6470 and 0.6630. Selling an iron condor—where one sells a call spread above and a put spread below the range—could be profitable if the pair remains stable while the market digests the shutdown’s effects. This strategy generates income if expected volatility takes longer to appear. Lastly, a more direct approach would favor Aussie strength against US dollar weakness. Purchasing AUD/USD call options with a strike price slightly above the current resistance around 0.6630 could provide a leveraged upside if Australian fundamentals prove strong. This position anticipates that weak US job data will push the Federal Reserve towards a softer approach, weakening the US dollar. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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