Australia reported a job loss of 21,300 for November, which was a big surprise. Experts had predicted a gain of 20,000 jobs. This drop is a sign of trouble in the job market.
In the financial markets, the US Dollar made a slight recovery, affecting various currency pairs. The USD/JPY climbed above 156.00, but the GBP/USD dropped to about 1.3365 as talks began about a possible rate cut by the Bank of England.
The Federal Reserve’s recent decisions led to changes in the USD, impacting commodities and other assets. Gold pulled back from its weekly high, and Solana fell due to negative market sentiment after the Fed’s announcements.
The Federal Open Market Committee stated that interest rates are expected to average 3.4% by the end of 2026. This forecast follows the September predictions, suggesting a slower pace for rate changes.
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The Australian jobs report for November 2025 was shocking, showing a decrease of 21,300 jobs instead of the expected gain of 20,000. This marks the first major job loss in over a year, indicating a cooling economy. We may see the Australian dollar weaken against its major trading partners as a result.
This unexpected data has caused a spike in implied volatility for AUD/USD options, with the one-month contract indicating larger moves ahead. Considering this, it might be a good idea to buy puts on the AUD/USD or create bear put spreads to manage costs. This strategy could help us profit from a falling exchange rate and increased market uncertainty.
On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve just made a “hawkish cut,” suggesting future rate reductions will happen slowly. This stance is backed by recent strong data, with US Initial Jobless Claims remaining steady at around 215,000—well below recession levels. This policy gap should provide support for the dollar, especially against currencies where central banks might need to adopt a softer approach.
The AUD/USD pair is therefore a strong candidate for short positions in the coming weeks. The clear differences in economic momentum and a stubborn US inflation rate—with core CPI for November 2025 holding at 3.1%—allow the Fed to be patient. We expect this pair may drop below key support levels set earlier this year.
The current situation is reminiscent of the 2022-2023 period when the Fed’s aggressive policies significantly outpaced those of other countries, leading to a sustained rise in the US dollar index. We could be beginning to see a smaller version of that trend as policies diverge again.
For those trading gold, the slightly stronger US dollar is creating resistance, making it difficult to break above the $4,250 per ounce level. As long as the Fed maintains a cautious approach, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold remains high. It would be wise to avoid large long positions until US economic data shows more convincing signs of weakness.
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