Australia’s exports fell in November, dropping to -2.9%. This is a shift from a previous growth rate of 3.4%. The decline suggests lower international demand for Australian goods, marking a change from the positive growth observed in October.

Significant Reversal In Export Growth

In November 2025, Australia’s month-over-month export growth plummeted to -2.9%, down from a solid 3.4%. This indicates a possible slowdown in global demand for Australian resources, which puts pressure on the value of the Australian dollar. The economic momentum we saw in the third quarter of last year did not carry into the end of the year. The weakness in exports is closely linked to commodity markets, especially iron ore. Prices for iron ore dropped from about $125 per tonne in October 2025 to around $110 by the end of December, a decline of over 10%. This fall was driven by lower industrial output forecasts from China. As commodity prices decline, Australia’s export value will likely stay low. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate at 4.35% for the second half of 2025, but now faces a more challenging decision. The weak trade data, along with the latest quarterly CPI figures at 3.9% (slightly below the 4.1% forecast), makes it less likely that interest rates will rise. Markets are starting to remove the chance of a rate hike in the first half of 2026. For foreign exchange traders, this creates an opportunity to bet against the AUD/USD. It may be wise to buy put options with strikes below the key support level of 0.6500, which has held steady for weeks. These options are still relatively affordable, allowing for a good position if the market breaks lower towards 0.6400.

Impact On Equity And Interest Rate Markets

This outlook is negative for the resource-heavy ASX 200 index. A bearish view can be expressed by shorting SPI 200 futures, as major mining stocks are likely to underperform. It is also smart to hedge long portfolios with put options on broad market ETFs, considering the risk of a growth slowdown. Interest rate markets now offer a chance to prepare for a more cautious RBA later this year. We can consider locking in fixed rates on interest rate swaps for late 2026, betting that the central bank is more likely to cut rates than to raise them. This trade is supported by the dual pressures of slowing global demand and declining domestic inflation. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now