Australian Dollar Rises

The Australian dollar increased as the trade surplus grew in September. Silver prices are facing pressure, remaining below the resistance level between $49.35 and $49.40. The USD/CAD pair traded near 1.4100 after dropping from seven-month highs. The US Dollar Index fell to around 100.00 as the US government shutdown reached a record length. In the cryptocurrency market, Decred, Internet Computer, and Quant stood out with significant gains. However, the technical outlook for these coins is mixed due to nearby resistance levels. Market sentiment may face risks from upcoming US economic data and comments from the Federal Reserve. Attention is also on central bank meetings in Australia and the UK. Stellar (XLM) could drop by 15% due to weakening demand amid a Death Cross pattern.

US Dollar Index Stays Strong

Australia’s September exports recently rebounded by 7.9%, a much stronger figure compared to recent performance. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the trade surplus for September 2025 shrank to A$8.2 billion, partly due to lower demand from key Asian markets. Traders might consider strategies that profit from a stable or slightly weakening Australian dollar, such as selling out-of-the-money call options on the AUD/USD pair. Concerns about oil oversupply that kept WTI crude near $59.50 are now behind us. Currently, WTI futures for January delivery are stable around $84 per barrel. The market is more focused on supply discipline from major producers and ongoing geopolitical risks. Given this context, buying long-dated call options is likely a good hedge against possible price increases as we enter the new year. The US Dollar Index has changed from its performance during a past government shutdown. It is now holding steady above 106.00 after recent reports indicated core inflation is higher than the Federal Reserve wants. This ongoing strength suggests that trading the dollar against currencies with more accommodating central bank policies could remain profitable. While gold once struggled to recover, it now faces strong resistance due to a stronger dollar. Gold is stabilizing near $2,375 an ounce, far from the ambitious prices discussed in previous years. With high real interest rates limiting its appeal, traders may want to use collars—purchasing a protective put and selling a call—to manage positions within this range. We remember when GBP/USD found support near 1.3000, but things have changed. The pair is now around 1.2350 as the Bank of England takes a long pause on interest rates to evaluate the impact on the UK’s delicate economy. The market is sensitive to any future guidance, creating opportunities to trade the implied volatility leading up to the next BoE meeting. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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