In November, Austria saw wholesale prices rise by 0.9%, reversing a previous drop of 0.3%. Analysts predict that Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey will show an increase in the unemployment rate to 7%, with employment changes in November likely remaining unchanged after October’s growth. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to rise to 52 from a low of 51.0. A slow job market and rising prices may impact consumer confidence. Gold is experiencing slight gains on Friday, staying within its weekly range due to expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve that weakens the USD.

USD Stabilizes Near Weekly Lows

The USD is stabilizing near its weekly lows as poor labor data emerges, with the Dollar Index around 99.00. The value of the Pi Network has dropped for the third consecutive day, nearing a support trendline. The market is looking forward to US September PCE inflation and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. The GBP/USD pair remains positive, trading near 1.3350, supported by the overall weakness of the US Dollar during Friday’s European session. This trend helps the pair perform well among broader currency movements. With the US Dollar Index showing low volatility and remaining near the important 99.00 mark, the market seems to hold its breath. This silence is due to weak labor market indicators and expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve. The upcoming US PCE Price Index will be crucial in breaking this calm in the following weeks. We see more signs of weakness in the American economy, supporting a bearish outlook on the dollar. The preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected to be only 52, and there have been reports of JOLTS job openings dropping to levels not seen since early 2022. This stagnant job market heavily impacts consumer confidence and economic predictions.

Market Expectations and Economic Indicators

This economic slowdown has led the market to anticipate a more supportive approach from the Fed. The last Core PCE reading in October 2025 was 2.9%, significantly lower than the highs of 2023. Traders think the Fed will focus on aiding the labor market rather than strictly controlling this level of inflation, especially if job data continues to worsen. In this context, gold remains an appealing investment, even if it’s currently trading within its weekly range. Its strength is closely linked to the weak dollar and expectations of lower interest rates. We might consider using options, like bull call spreads, to prepare for a possible breakout above the current range after the PCE data is released. There are clear opportunities for divergence in other currencies. The British pound appears strong against the dollar, staying near 1.3350, and we should favor this trend. In contrast, the Canadian dollar looks weak ahead of its labor data release, where unemployment is expected to rise to 7%. This situation suggests that holding a long GBP/CAD position could be advantageous. Over the next few weeks, selling US dollar call options or buying puts on the DXY index offers a way to profit from the anticipated dollar weakness while benefiting from low volatility. The main risk is an unexpected increase in the PCE inflation report, so any derivatives positions should be structured to manage risk ahead of that data release. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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