Market pricing for Bank of England rate rises has cooled after Governor Andrew Bailey’s recent remarks, while lower oil prices have also eased tightening expectations. At one stage, traders were factoring in more than 80bp of BoE tightening for this year, but that has fallen to 33bp. Bailey said the BoE could look through temporary above-target inflation provided second-round effects do not appear.
Sterling has remained relatively resilient despite the shift in rate expectations. Still, a firmer US dollar tone is seen capping GBP/USD near 1.3500. In the crosses, EUR/GBP is described as supported around 0.8610/20. The piece was produced with the help of an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
BoE Policy Shift Calms Rate Hike Expectations
We’ve noticed the Bank of England has successfully calmed expectations for more rate hikes this year. While the pound has been resilient, the strong US dollar narrative is likely to cap GBP/USD gains near the 1.3000 level. This also suggests EUR/GBP will find solid support around the 0.8550 area.
Not long ago, the market was pricing in two full 25 basis point hikes from the BoE before the end of the year. Following the latest inflation data, which showed CPI holding at 2.5%, we now see only a 40% chance of a single hike priced in. This significant shift reflects the central bank’s more cautious tone.
In a recent statement, the Governor emphasized that with UK wage growth finally moderating to a 3.8% annual pace, the bank can look past slightly sticky services inflation. The fear of significant second-round effects appears to be fading. This gives them room to pause and assess the impact of previous tightening.
FX Market Strategies and US Dollar Strength
For derivative traders, this suggests selling sterling strength against the dollar becomes an attractive strategy. We believe selling call options on GBP/USD with a strike price around 1.3050 could be a prudent way to capitalize on this expected ceiling. The reduced BoE rate hike premium no longer justifies holding aggressive long positions.
This outlook is reinforced by continued strength in the US economy, where the May jobs report added a robust 220,000 new payrolls. This contrasts with the slowing UK growth figures and solidifies the Federal Reserve’s stance to keep policy tighter for longer. The interest rate differential will continue to favor the dollar.
