The National Bank of Hungary plans to keep the base rate at 6.50%. This decision marks the 12th consecutive time the rate has remained unchanged. In its last meeting on September 23, the bank chose not to adjust the rate due to inflation expectations, which are forecasted to stay above the central bank’s comfort zone of 3% ± 1%. The swaps market predicts interest rate cuts of 75 basis points over the next two years. However, Hungary’s positive real interest rates, a relaxed fiscal policy for 2026, and a current account surplus of 1.9% of GDP in Q2 suggest a stronger Hungarian Forint (HUF).

Market Observations and Analysis

The FXStreet Insights Team gathers market observations, drawing insights from commercial and internal analysts. They discuss topics like the stronger dollar’s impact on gold, the stability of USD/CAD in light of Canadian CPI data, and trends in the copper market and cryptocurrencies. The editorial section highlights shifts in key forex rates, corrections in gold prices, and concerns about the global economy. It also ranks the best brokers for 2025 based on various criteria, serving informational purposes and stating that it does not offer investment advice. Currently, the National Bank of Hungary is maintaining its base rate at 6.50%. This decision continues a pause that began in September 2024. The latest inflation data for September 2025 showed a rate of 5.1%. With a positive real yield of 1.4%, the forint remains attractive. The central bank’s stability suggests a predictable policy outlook in the near future. Considering Hungary’s strong fundamentals, including a current account surplus that grew to 2.1% of GDP in Q3 2025, we expect the forint to strengthen. This situation contrasts sharply with the high inflation and volatility experienced in 2022 and 2023, providing a clearer opportunity for carry trades. We recommend that derivative traders consider shorting EUR/HUF, expecting the pair to drop from around 390 as the forint gains value.

Trading Strategies and Market Outlook

Though the swaps market anticipates rate cuts in the next two years, the immediate plan for the NBH is to maintain the current rate. This presents a solid trading opportunity for the upcoming weeks. Traders may want to utilize short-dated put options on EUR/HUF to take advantage of this outlook with limited risk. This strategy seems stronger than opposing the dollar, especially given the broad recovery of the USD. The Dollar Index (DXY) crossed above 107.50 last week for the first time since early 2024. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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