Bitcoin has recovered from last week’s losses and is nearing an important resistance level. After a recent selloff, it experienced a V-shaped recovery. To reach a new all-time high, it needs to break through this resistance. Last week’s price drop was linked to a dispute between Musk and Trump, which affected other risk assets like stocks. Concerns over Trump’s tax proposal, which could hinder growth, also played a role. As tensions lessened, both Bitcoin and stocks rebounded strongly. Bitcoin faces three key risks: the potential failure of Trump’s tax plan, the possibility of a renewed trade war after July’s deadline, or rising inflation fears that could lead to changes in interest rate expectations. The 4-hour chart shows a rapid decline to 100,723, followed by a quick recovery as buyers stepped in. Currently, the price is approaching the resistance area at 106,800. At this resistance level, sellers may try to push the price back down to 100,723, while buyers hope for a breakout to take the price higher. The sharp rebound from around 100,723 was not just a typical bounce. It came after a brief period of risk aversion that affected broader markets, weakening sentiment for risk assets. With tensions easing and stocks recovering, Bitcoin’s recent strength seems to be part of this larger recovery, even though it’s close to a level that has previously stopped it from moving higher. The activity at the resistance level of 106,800 is significant. Historically, this threshold has prompted profit-taking and new selling. Now that Bitcoin is nearing this level, short-term traders are divided. Some traders are looking for signs of weakness to initiate short positions, while others need a clear breakout above this level before increasing their exposure. The chances of a successful breakout partially depend on whether external pressures remain low. We’ve seen how macroeconomic anxieties—especially around trade and tax proposals—can quickly change market trends. There is a lot of economic data coming in the next few weeks. Any changes in inflation readings could reignite discussions about quick interest rate adjustments, which might negatively impact riskier investments. From our perspective, how Bitcoin behaves around this resistance can provide early signals. If it stalls again without new macroeconomic drivers, we expect it to pull back toward the 100,723 level, likely more rapidly given the recent price surge. How Bitcoin reacts at this support level will be crucial, as a failure to hold could change the overall market trend for the next month. Volume is also critical here. In the recent price increase, we saw a rise in buyer interest. This must continue. If volume doesn’t follow through, even strong rallies can quickly lose momentum. The next day or two of trading will reveal whether buyer commitment is growing or if traders are hesitant to pursue current prices. At this stage, managing investments means keeping an eye on not just price targets but also the overall discussions around taxes, policies, and trade. Recent non-market events have shown that they can influence price behavior. Therefore, it’s important to look beyond the price chart.

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