Bitcoin has recently paused in its strong rally, even with positive US economic data and lower-than-expected inflation. Since the market’s bottom in April, growth expectations and available funds have played a big role. The upcoming August 1 tariff deadline might cause some market caution, but there are still potential positive outcomes. With few negative drivers, Bitcoin’s trend could remain upward. Futures risks include fears about growth due to tariffs or changes in interest rate forecasts. On the 4-hour chart, a solid support zone around $116,000 has held strong despite multiple attempts to break through. If Bitcoin pulls back to this support area, buyers might step in, leading to a possible rally to new highs if the support holds. However, if this support fails, sellers may target a drop to the next trendline around $110,000. Based on our analysis, we see the current consolidation as a brief pause rather than a change in trend. Recent data backs up the positive macro drivers mentioned earlier, as spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $1.8 billion in net inflows during the first week of June 2024. This strong institutional demand is a solid floor for prices and supports a bullish outlook. Mr. Dellamotta points out that the August tariff deadline brings uncertainty, so we should be ready for possible volatility. In the past, heightened trade tensions, especially under Mr. Trump, have led to unpredictable price movements across markets. However, digital assets have sometimes gained from safe-haven flows. Therefore, derivative traders should be cautious but view significant dips from macro news as possible buying chances. For traders who share this positive outlook, we recommend buying call options with strikes above Bitcoin’s all-time high. The support zone around $66,000 is a crucial area to start these positions. Using call spreads can help define risk and capture potential profits if the market breaks out as expected. To protect against a possible breakdown, buying put options with strikes below the $66,000 support level is wise. If the market doesn’t hold this support, these positions could profit from a decline to the next support zone around $60,000. This strategy acts as a cost-effective insurance policy against unexpected growth concerns or a stricter interest rate policy. The current slowdown in momentum has reduced implied volatility, making options cheaper. We see this as a chance to build positions before the next major price movement. Buying straddles or strangles could be an effective method to trade the anticipated increase in volatility, regardless of its direction.

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